Mi25 : Back-test Analysis 2011-13

This has reference to the previous blog post here. Please read that first.

So after the recovery in 2009 which almost all “normal” people missed (I consider myself normal;) ), the market was ready to give another spinner. By the time most every body piled back up their portfolios ( after throwing em off in 2008), the market went flat. And it just did nothing for the next 3 years. Grind Grind Grind. One of the most frustrating periods in the last 20 that I can remember (maybe besides 2001-2003).

Anyhow, CNX500 closed near 4330 end Dec 2010 and did nothing for the next 3 years ending at 4850 end of 2013. A 20 pct drop to 3500 was an added feature of this period. A marvelous 12% buy and hold gain in 3 years! Surely did not beat inflation.

What did Mi25 do here ?

3yrs

Some stats for these 3 years : Only 121 trades , 35% wins, 65% loses. Avg gain 33%, Avg loss 13%. Max draw down around 13% (from peak) by mid 2011. 1% txn cost assumed.

Comparative Analysis :

Mi25 CNX 500 Analysis of Mi25
2011 -1% -17% Outperform
2012 35% 35% Match
2013 2% 0% Underperform

So again, we find the drawdowns are much shallower, the out-performance is not outstanding but given that this period had NO momentum, it still came out unscathed.

A INR 10 lac portfolio on CNX500 would yield a end value of INR 11.2 lacs and on Mi25 INR 13.6 lacs. Not a major difference but it would beat inflation in a period which I consider as one of the toughest 3 year periods.

A part of the math game that all need to understand and which is displayed here is that a 35% win rate can also make you a winner. So regardless of whether you follow Mi25 or not in the future, stay away from advisers who claim 80 90 or 99 pct accurate trades. You will always be safer with a 40-60% success rate guy 🙂

Hope you could see with these two posts over these six years – that were unique, that Mi25 would have (hypothetically) performed better than the broader index even in the tougher time in the market. In easy times like 2014 or 2016 it has left the market behind by miles for sure.

Have a good day!

 

One thought on “Mi25 : Back-test Analysis 2011-13

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.