End of the week and not a bad week I would say. Beginning of March, we were still wondering if March can be a green month, and one week down, we are seeing the proof of that. Markets were oversold and markets are trying to make some sort of a comeback. Although we may say that we’re not yet out of the woods.

Where is the market headed?

Market Overview

Nifty closed at 22,552. 4 Green Days seen in Nifty. Something that we have not seen, I think, since October. I think I’m not able to see four consecutive green days on the chart since the market started to fall. So that itself is a sign. May not be a conclusive sign yet, but the two-day move above 22,300-22250 was certainly a sign that the market is trying to make a comeback. I suspect that we will at least go to 23,000 and then retest the trend line there and then take it forward. So, completely flat for the day, but you know, no complaints on that for the day.

Nifty Next 50

Nifty Junior down 0.44% but not yet able to even close this gap right here. So that shows you that there is some strength in the market with the bulls for now at least.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Mid caps down a quarter percent. So, the last two days have just been consolidation, and small caps are also slightly up 0.69%. Small caps are up almost a thousand points from the recent bottom, actually more than 1,000 points. So, good comeback by small caps in the last four sessions.

Nifty Bank Overview

Bank Nifty extremely muted -0.27%, neither here nor there. And that is fine for now.

GOLD

Gold is up 0.1%, again around 86,000. Gold is creating this flag-like formation, and if there is some trigger news, I think gold can easily go up 3-5% in no time.

Advanced Declined Ratio Trends

When we look at market breadth, market breadth is pretty much even today. So, Nifty 500 had about 64 stocks advancing to 234 declines. Nifty mid cap almost midway 44 to 56. Nifty 50 also 23 to 27. So, reasonable day -The mid cap 50 actually had some more selling, the Nifty 200 also slightly on the bearish side, but no major biases on either side.

Nifty Heatmap

The major contributor to Nifty today was Reliance. Reliance Industries up 3.32%, Nestle up 1.5%, Bajaj Auto also 1.5%. And the rest of the market, you can see, was more shades of red. Infosys, HLtech, Levers, Titan, and NTPC Indusind bank all losing ground.

In the Nifty Next 50 space, you had some big names losing ground. So Zomato, Indigo, Siemens, Gas Authority, Rec, Lodha, Adani, Green lost some ground. Bajaj holding came back up 3.6%. IRFC, ATGL, Demart, HAL, these were some of the stocks that moved up

Sectoral Overview

in the sectoral trends. You had defense move up 3% for the day. So, 10.7% is the move on defense stocks in just one week. So, defense has been the most beaten sector, and that has made a comeback. Still down 18% for the last three months.

Media also coming back at 1.8% for the day, 7.4% for the week, still down 28% for the last three months. And the rest of the market was pretty much about plus or minus half a percent from the mean.

Public sector enterprise stocks, tourism stocks, IT stocks, and real estate stocks had some beating. Real estate stocks down 1.2% for the day and they still are reeling at minus 24%.

Another notable sector which is currently in the dumps is capital market, which is down 25% for the last three months. So these are some of the places where the real pain actually exists.

Sectors of the Day

Nifty IND Defence Index

Defense, as you can see, made a sort of a double bottom and has crossed this pivot. And hence the technical move is on the higher side, 2.96% here. Data patterns, Paras defense, GRSE, Bharat Dynamics, Zentech, Mazagon, Astra Microwave, Mishra Dhatu. All these stocks doing well. It may be that the government has asked LIC to support the market a bit. That may be a reason also.

When you get very oversold, I mean, short sellers also start to panic. It’s not just that buyers panic all the time. Sellers also panic, and that usually is a sign of complete oversold.

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