The WeekendInvesting Newsletter
Another superb initiative from our Research Desk is The WeekendInvesting Newsletter. This is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
Check out our past newsletters.
Nifty on the Daily Chart – 50 & 200 DMA Perspective
This week, Nifty closed 0.69% lower, but given the rough months we’ve had, this isn’t too concerning. A relatively stable week is always welcome, even though the downward trend doesn’t appear to be ending soon.
Nifty – Weekly Perspective
On a weekly basis, Nifty remains within the congestion zone of 21,800 to 22,800. A true breakout will only be confirmed if the index moves decisively above this range. This week’s candle was relatively small, following a bounce in the previous week. However, the overall monthly trend still points downward. Breaking this continuous string of monthly declines is crucial for sentiment to turn around.
S&P 500 Overview
S&P 500 rose on Friday (14 Mar), driven by increasing challenges to President Trump’s executive orders in court. Many of his policy decisions, including job cuts and economic measures, are facing legal roadblocks, leading to uncertainty about how much of his economic agenda will actually materialize.
If the tariff-related executive orders also face obstacles, the anticipated trade restrictions may not come through as aggressively as feared. This provided some relief to the markets. However, for the week, the S&P 500 still ended with a significant decline of 2.2%, marking four consecutive weeks of losses.
GOLD Overview
Gold surged by 2.39% this week, closing at an all-time high on the weekly dollar chart, nearing the $3,000 mark. In Indian rupee terms, it reached ₹88,000 per 10 grams. Gold and silver remain among the few asset classes seeing strong liquidity inflows. This rally is being fueled by increasing recognition of gold as an essential monetary asset, not just among central banks but also among institutions, pension funds, ultra-high-net-worth individuals, and retail investors.
More people are realizing that they lack adequate exposure to gold in their portfolios. Investors who previously held 0% gold are looking to allocate 2%, those with 2% are increasing to 5%, and even those with significant gold holdings are seeking to expand further. Traditional 60-40 equity-bond portfolios are proving ineffective as bonds are failing to hedge against equity downturns, prompting increased gold allocations.
A similar shift is happening at the central bank level. Many countries are either increasing their gold reserves or repatriating their existing gold holdings from storage facilities in the US and Europe. Around 13-14 countries have repatriated their gold from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve over the last two years.
This signals a broader move toward de-globalization, where trust in international financial institutions is eroding. Unlike dollar assets, which can be sanctioned or frozen, physical gold remains beyond political control. This trend of increased gold accumulation by nations and institutions suggests a prolonged uptrend in prices.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index remained flat this week, but its overall trend has been downward. A weakening dollar is typically positive for emerging markets and precious metals. If this trend continues, it could provide much-needed relief for the Indian rupee and attract foreign inflows back into Indian markets.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Benchmark indices continued their downward trajectory. Small caps and mid caps lost over 2% this week, while Nifty Next 50 declined by nearly 2%. The broader Nifty 500 fell 1.3%, and Nifty 50 dropped 0.65%. Over the past month, indices have seen declines of 2.75% to 6%. In the last three months, the fall has been severe, ranging from 10% to 23%, while the six-month decline stands between 12% and 24%.
The last six months have been overwhelmingly negative across the board. Over a one-year horizon, indices are still holding onto minor gains, which is reassuring. When looking at three-year and five-year periods, markets remain comfortably in double-digit gains. This highlights the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective. Investors following an SIP approach would still be seeing better returns compared to those making lump-sum investments at market peaks.
Sectoral Overview
In sectoral movements, defense, financial services, and FMCG managed to stay flat this week, avoiding declines but not posting meaningful gains either. On the downside, IT was the worst-performing sector, falling 5.3%. Capital market stocks continued their steep decline, down 12% this month and 30% over the last three months.
Real estate has been hit equally hard, falling 26% in three months, while IT has lost 21%. Over the past year, some sectors like defense, capital markets, tourism, and metals performed well, but the trend is reversing for many of them. Energy, PSU banks, oil & gas, FMCG, and real estate have struggled over the past year, with several sectors remaining flat or posting minimal returns.
From a sectoral momentum perspective, financial services remain at the top across various timeframes. Metals, commodities, pharma, and defense have shown consistent strength. Pharma had dipped significantly but has rebounded, and defense is making a comeback as well. In the short term, oil & gas and FMCG are recovering quickly.
However, private banks and MNC companies have started to weaken, while public sector enterprises (PSEs) remain among the least promising sectors. This ongoing sectoral rotation underscores the importance of staying adaptable and positioning portfolios toward areas that continue to show strength.
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
