The WeekendInvesting Newsletter
The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
Check out our past newsletters.
Nifty on the Daily Chart
What a week it has been. Out of nowhere, we witnessed a five-day continuous rally in the markets, something nobody was expecting. Every part of the market participated in this uptrend. The Nifty broke through an important trendline and several key pivot levels, which sets the stage for a potential shift in sentiment. While it’s still early to call this the beginning of a new trend, it does give hope that we may not see new lows in the coming weeks. For now, the fear in the market seems to have eased significantly.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
Looking at the Nifty chart, the recovery from the 21,900 bottom has been strong. We saw a clear red run followed by a flag formation and then a further breakout to the upside. The index is now approaching the 100-day moving average. It’s already above the 20 DMA, and while the 200 DMA is still some distance away, a 4.26% gain this week is a welcome change.
On the weekly chart, the trendline that was previously acting as support has held well. As discussed earlier, the 21,600 to 22,200 zone has acted as a congestion area, and the markets have taken support right there. The current move is now targeting the previous lower high at 23,700. If Nifty manages to break this level and then makes a higher low, we could be looking at the start of a new uptrend. However, if the index reverses from near 23,500 and drops again, it could signal the beginning of a prolonged bear phase. For now, though, the global setup seems to be turning supportive for emerging markets, with a weakening U.S. dollar, falling U.S. markets, and a slowdown in flows to U.S. assets.
S&P 500 Overview
The U.S. markets, or the “mother market,” closed down for the week. The S&P 500 fell back into its September congestion zone, effectively erasing all the gains made during the Trump rally. For the week, the S&P 500 ended flat, up just 0.5%.
GOLD Overview
Gold posted a marginal gain of 0.19% this week. After touching ₹90,000 per 10 grams, it gave up some of those gains and closed at ₹88,190. Nonetheless, the trend remains strong.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, which had been falling in recent weeks, rose by 0.4% this week. It remains broadly stable for now, though still off its highs.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In the benchmark index overview, it was a spectacular week. Small caps rose 8%, midcaps gained 7%, Nifty Next 50 was up 6%, Nifty 500 rose 5%, and Nifty 50 gained 4%. This kind of broad-based rally is rare and very encouraging.
Sectoral Overview
Among the sectors, capital market stocks staged a strong comeback, rising 13.9% this week. However, over the last three months, they are still down 18%, and over six months, down 6.7%. Despite that, on a one-year basis, capital markets lead with an impressive 41% gain. Defense stocks also bounced back this week after being down 5% over the last three months. With a 10% rally this week alone, they’ve made up significant ground. Real estate too is showing signs of revival.
These three sectors—capital markets, defense, and real estate—look attractive for discretionary investors seeking setups. Autos, PSU banks, and private banks also performed well. Metals and commodities were steady, while IT remained slow. Over the last year, IT has been flat. Oil and gas, PSU banks, energy, and media have underperformed over the past year, but this week’s action left little room for complaints.
Momentum clearly favors financial services, particularly NBFCs and related companies, which have consistently ranked high across timeframes. Though not topping the charts this week, their average ranks over one year remain strong. Defense, after slipping, has rebounded well. Metals fell behind slightly this week. Central PSEs and CPSEs are also making a comeback. Capital market and real estate sectors, which were heavily beaten down, are showing signs of recovery.
IT continues to stay at the bottom of the momentum rankings across all timeframes, making it the clear laggard this year. However, real estate and media now appear to be in the early stages of a comeback, suggesting possible sectoral rotation in the weeks ahead.
On Konversations with Kushal show !
I recently had a great conversation on Konversation with Kushal, where we dove deep into the world of momentum investing.
In this episode, we discussed:
What momentum investing really is and how it helps investors stay on the right side of trends.
The ideal number of stocks in a portfolio, how to balance across market caps
The key decisions every investor must make and the biggest regrets most investors face.
How to identify trending sectors and whether sector allocation really matters.
If you want to understand the logic behind momentum investing and how it can help you build a robust, stress-free portfolio, don’t miss this episode!
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
