Weekend Investing Daily Byte – 12 May 2025

May 12, 2025 4 min read

The markets are absolutely on fire today! While there hasn’t been any official announcement about the end of recent military operations, it looks like, for all practical purposes, the situation has de-escalated. The Air Force still maintains that operations are ongoing, but reports suggest even some nuclear sites may have been hit. If that’s true, it could mean the enemy is significantly weakened. This sense of relief is clearly visible in the markets. A lot of short sellers were caught off guard.

Where is the market headed?

Market Overview

Markets shot up today like a BrahMos missile—up 3.82% in a single session! This kind of move hasn’t been seen in the past four years. After a strong run in early April and a brief consolidation, this new surge shows promise of hitting previous highs.

Nifty Next 50

The Nifty Junior was up 4.08%, and its chart looks very strong.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Midcaps jumped 3.75% and have broken past earlier highs, nearing their January peak. Small caps also gained 4%, though not as decisively as midcaps.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Bank index rose 3.3%, pushing back toward its all-time high of 55,000.

GOLD

On the flip side, gold took a big hit, falling 3.9%. We’ll discuss the reasons for this in the second half. For now, it looks like gold may need some time to recover.

Advance Decline Ratio

The advance-decline trend strongly favored gainers, with 471 stocks advancing.

Heat Maps

Almost every Nifty component was up—except for IndusInd Bank and Sun Pharma. The pharma sector was hit by news that US President Trump may push for reduced consumer drug prices, which could affect Indian pharma exporters.

Sectoral Overview

All sectors saw gains today, with IT leading the charge—up 6.7%. Metals rose 5.9%, real estate 5.9%, capital markets 5.7%, and tourism 5.6%. Only pharma and defense were flat.

Sector of the Day

Nifty IT Index

IT stocks were on fire—Oracle Financial Service rose 9%, Coforge and Persistent Systems gained 8%, and Infosys and LTI Mindtree both jumped 7-8%.

Story of the Day: Indian Markets ROAR Back to Life

The main driver behind today’s rally was the Indian market’s resilience during recent geopolitical tensions. Even on the day markets gapped down due to conflict, overall breadth remained decent. Many shorts were likely built during this period, which were then squeezed out as the market rebounded quickly following a short-lived conflict.

Global sentiment turned positive as the US and China signaled progress on tariff reductions, easing trade tensions. Both sides are open to negotiations over the next 90 days, lifting equities across global markets, including Hong Kong, Europe, and US futures. Oil rose 3% on improved demand outlook, while gold dropped as investors shifted to riskier assets.

India’s market outlook is also brightening. Morningstar DBRS upgraded the country’s sovereign rating, boosting investor confidence. With no major negative news—peace on the border, trade optimism, rating upgrade, and a normal monsoon forecast—sellers lack a bearish narrative. SIP inflows hit a record ₹26,632 crore in April 2025, up 45% year-on-year, reflecting growing trust in Indian equities.

Technically, the Nifty looks strong and could break above the 24,900 resistance, paving the way to all-time highs. The recent rally shows resilience, even during geopolitical tension. FII flows will be crucial, especially with a strengthening dollar.

How did you react to today’s market surge? Where do you think the market is headed by the end of May? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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    Weekend Investing Daily Byte – 12 May 2025