The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
An eventful week saw the markets remain choppy, lacking clear direction but witnessing frequent minor trend reversals. Defense stocks continued their strong run, gaining ground amid uncertainty. However, by Friday’s close, new tariff murmurs emerged—suggestions of a 50% tariff on EU goods and a 25% tariff on Apple products assembled outside the U.S. These developments could potentially trigger volatility over the next few weeks, up until June 1 when the changes are expected to be implemented.
Despite these headwinds, the markets seem to be discounting many of these statements, especially given how frequently the U.S. President tends to backtrack on extreme stances. On the domestic front, India appears well-positioned. The RBI’s massive dividend payout of ₹2.6 lakh crore to the government will help manage the fiscal deficit effectively. Crude oil prices hovering near $60–65 are also a positive. Additionally, most Nifty companies have reported results in line with expectations, suggesting a stable earnings season.
Perhaps the most critical global development is the fall of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is now near a three-year low of 99, and with the current U.S. administration aiming to push it lower, there could be a deluge of foreign inflows into emerging markets, including India. Despite fears around the tariff war, there are no other major overhangs visible in the Indian markets right now. If global flows accelerate, the second half of the calendar year could outperform expectations.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
Looking at the daily Nifty chart, the index attempted a pullback on Friday after four weak sessions. We’re still relatively higher compared to the recent bottom, so some sideways movement and consolidation were anticipated. This week, Nifty ended down by just 0.67%, which is acceptable considering the broader context.
S&P 500 Overview
In contrast, the S&P 500 dropped 2.6% this week, although it remains close to all-time highs. Liquidity continues to dominate the narrative, with 30-year U.S. bond yields at 5% and 10-year yields around 4.5%. With nearly $9 trillion of debt to be rolled over this year, U.S. authorities are desperate to bring yields down—either through increased global demand for U.S. bonds or through aggressive domestic monetary easing. In this setup, the bond market is the real driver of global financial behavior, not equities.
GOLD Overview
Gold surged again this week by 4.35%, moving from around ₹93,000 to nearly ₹97,500 per 10 grams. This marks a fresh all-time high, and given the strong long-term trend, there’s little reason to doubt its continuation. From just ₹53,000 a year and a half ago, gold has nearly doubled, and the trajectory still looks firm.
Dollar Index Overview
As for the dollar index, a breakdown from a long-term support level was confirmed this week, and a sharp decline may follow. A falling dollar typically benefits emerging markets and risk assets like gold, which could be the setup unfolding next.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In benchmark indices, Nifty Smallcap, Nifty Next 50, and a few others eked out small gains, while the broader market remained largely flat. No significant movement was seen in most major indices.
Sectoral Overview
In sectoral performance, real estate gained 2.7%, defense 1.8%, and capital markets 1.5%. These sectors have maintained strong upward trends. Over the last month, defense is up 23.6%, capital markets 6%, and real estate 4.5%. On a 12-month basis, defense and capital market stocks have surged 27.9% and 51%, respectively. Real estate, however, is still down -9% over the year.
This week, lagging sectors included IT, autos, tourism, oil & gas, pharma, FMCG, and commodities—all down around 1%. FMCG was impacted by a mixed bag of results, while capital markets rode the momentum of rising volumes and stocks like BSE Ltd. Defense remains hot, though valuation worries persist. Yet, it’s worth noting that sectors like FMCG also stayed expensive for years while delivering massive wealth. Strategy and trend-following matter more than valuation fears alone.
The sectoral momentum score further highlights these shifts. Defense, capital markets, financial services, private banks, and central PSEs dominate across timeframes. In the short term, real estate and PSU banks are making a sharp comeback. Metals, too, are bouncing back. On the flip side, oil & gas, commodities, infrastructure, and services sectors are beginning to slip.
On the Momentum Podcast
This episode of The Momentum Podcast unpacks 15 years of investing experience!
We cover:
✅ Early investing mistakes and learnings
✅ Navigating market fluctuations (including the 2020 crash)
✅ The transition from direct stock picking to managed funds
✅ The role of momentum investing in long-term strategy
✅ Key takeaways for building a resilient investment portfolio.
Whether you’re new to investing or looking to refine your approach, this episode is packed with practical advice!
✅ Insights every retail investor needs to hear
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
