The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
It’s been a dull week in the Indian markets. The markets have been coming off a bit, but there haven’t been any major moves of note. It feels as though the market is simply resting, waiting for new cues—perhaps from the quarterly results, which will start pouring in over the next seven to ten days.
This week, the markets were hit by the SEBI order against Jane Street. While the immediate reaction was evident in capital market stocks taking a hit, the bigger question now revolves around potential second-order and third-order effects. The second-order concern is whether other large algo players, who provide significant liquidity, might withdraw from the Indian markets as a result of increased regulatory scrutiny. The third-order worry is whether the regulator could introduce even tighter regulations around the derivatives market. This could snowball into a meaningful situation for the broader markets. It’s a developing story that will likely unfold over the next month or so, and we’ll have to wait and watch how it pans out.
On the geopolitical front, things have been reasonably quiet. However, one brewing story remains the uncertainty around the India–US tariff agreement, which could still trigger volatility in the coming week depending on how negotiations progress.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
This week, the Nifty posted a dull performance, down 0.69% on the weekly chart. It’s a minor blip, considering the market has been steadily climbing since April. Despite the pullback, the overall trend hasn’t been broken. The previous breakout remains intact, and it’s likely that we’ll retest the recent top in the coming weeks and months. It’s remarkable that we’re now discussing Nifty levels around 25,400, considering that not long ago we were eyeing levels closer to 21,000. The market seems to be consolidating at these higher levels, taking time to digest its rapid gains before deciding on the next leg of the move.
S&P 500 Overview
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 continues to surge, rising another 1.72% this week and closing at a new all-time high of 6,279. This, despite widespread narratives of an economy teetering near recession, ballooning debt levels, and debates over interest rates. The U.S. President wants rates lowered, while the Treasury Chief prefers to keep them high. Amidst all this confusion, the U.S. market keeps making new highs. What does this tell us? It suggests that global investors still hold a high level of confidence in the U.S. markets. A new high always signals that demand is outstripping supply—a clear sign that the U.S. market continues to be viewed as a safe haven relative to other global markets.
GOLD Overview
Gold also staged a comeback this week, climbing 1.95% to close at ₹9,700 per gram. Gold appears to be consolidating, waiting for the next trigger. While recent conflicts have simmered down, they haven’t disappeared completely, and any resurgence could quickly drive gold to new highs. The metal remains a simmering asset, poised for sharp moves should geopolitical headlines flare up again.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, which had been falling, remained relatively stable this week, inching down by just 0.15%. Despite this pause, the broader structure of the dollar index remains weak, and many experts believe it’s likely to head lower in the months ahead.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In the benchmark indices this week, small caps managed a modest gain of 0.6%, alongside mid caps, while the Nifty slipped 0.69%. Overall, it was a week where markets essentially went nowhere, leaving little of significance to discuss regarding the broader indices’ movements.
Sectoral Overview
On the sectoral front, real estate declined 2%, private banks fell 1.5%, and financial services slipped 1.8%. Defense stocks rose 1.7% after the government announced new orders worth ₹1 lakh crore. Capital markets were down 1.3%. Meanwhile, pharma and PSU banks posted gains of nearly 2–2.1%. These were small moves rather than dramatic shifts, reflecting the broader subdued tone of the week.
In terms of sectoral momentum scores, defense, capital markets, oil and gas, infrastructure, and IT remain the top five average momentum sectors. However, capital markets have been hit in the past week, as have services and banking, particularly private banking. Sectors now showing signs of a comeback include pharma, PSU banks, defense, and oil and gas. Overall, defense and capital markets have remained relatively steady at the top. At the other end of the spectrum, real estate, FMCG, and energy continue to occupy the bottom ranks, with little sign of upward momentum. Meanwhile, autos, PSU banks, and metals hover in the middle, bobbing up and down without clear direction.
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
