Weekend Investing Daily Byte – 30 September 2025

September 30, 2025 5 min read

Where is the market headed?

It is the end of the month and this month the markets have not really gone anywhere. In the first half we were up, in the second half we came down, and finally, we ended up almost where we started. The entire month turned out to be a washout, thanks mostly to Mr. Trump. Today’s trading day was also very dull. It was the expiry day on the options front. Now, the regulator is planning to allow daily expiries for Gift Nifty. While local market expiries are still being kept monthly, foreigners trading in Gift City dollar Nifty options will have the chance for daily expiries.

This has created a mixed and confusing message. It seems the regulator believes foreign institutional investors are smart enough to handle daily expiries, but local retail traders are not.

Apart from this, there is a lot of focus on precious metals. It feels like we may be near an intermediate top. The bull market is not over, but from time to time the market pauses and ensures that short-term traders lose heavily. That is the nature of the market. Precious metals should always be seen with a long-term view. Day-to-day trading in them is very risky, especially in silver. You need to be a very sharp trader to make money in such volatility. Do not fall into FOMO.

Market Overview

Looking at the charts, Nifty has not had a single green candle in the last nine days. In the last two days, it ended near the previous day, showing signs of oversold conditions. The market is not willing to fall further without a bounce. So, we may see a pullback soon, though if things break down, the 24,500 level could trigger a fall. For now, I am still expecting a reversal.

Nifty Next 50

Today, Nifty Junior was flat at 0.01%, Midcaps at 0.09%, and Small Caps at 0.16%. There was no real action.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Bank Nifty

Nifty Bank was slightly up at 0.32%, supported by PSU banks.

GOLD

Gold hit a new all-time high in rupee terms at ₹11,716 per gram but corrected later to ₹11,497. Some correction is needed, but nobody knows when it will come. Many traders make the mistake of shorting in a bull market during corrections. This is dangerous because you end up playing against the bigger trend.

Advance Decline Ratio

The advance-decline ratio today was balanced at 279 against 221.

Heat Maps

Big stocks like Reliance, Bharti, L&T, ITC, and Titan were down, while cement and steel did better. Hero Motors and PSU banks also added some support.

In Nifty Junior, stocks like Indigo, Shree Cement, Hyundai, D-Mart, VBL, Adani Power, DLF, Bajaj Holding, and Lodha lost ground.

Vedanta rose 3%, Jindal Steel 2%, and commodity-related stocks did well. Swiggy, United Spirits, and Britannia also rose.

Mover Of The Day

The mover of the day was Tata Investments, which shot up 16.82% on news of the Tata Capital IPO and a stock split. Tata Capital IPO is expected near ₹320–₹350, but it was trading at ₹1,000 in the unlisted market recently. Those who bought there may now face a 60–70% loss. This shows the risks of unregulated markets.

KPIT Tech fell 9.27%, its worst drop in a year, and the stock has already been weak for a while. Momentum strategies had already exited it.

Sectoral Overview

Sector-wise, PSU banks rose 1.84% and have been the top sector this month with 11.41% gains. Over the last three months, PSU banks gained 4.5% while Private banks fell 6%. This shows a clear rotation from expensive Private Banks to cheaper PSU banks. On the other hand, Capital Market stocks fell, with BSE down 2.68%.

Whenever Capital Market stocks fall, it reflects weak market sentiment. PSU banks, on the other hand, are seeking new highs with Bank of India, Indian Bank, Central Bank, PNB, and Canara Bank all rising.

Sector of the Day

Nifty PSU Bank Index

PSU banks like PNB, Canara Bank, and Bank of Baroda did well, showing a clear rotation from private to public banks.

Nifty Capital Market Index

U.S. Market

In the US markets, S&P 500 was up 0.26%, Dow Jones 0.15%, and Nasdaq 0.48% in the last session. Over the past month, Nasdaq has risen 5% and is up 24% this year. Stocks like PayPal, Accenture, Starbucks, Nvidia, and BlackRock are doing well. This was the 29th September trading day, and these gainers may do well in the near future too.

Tweets Of the Day

On the currency front, the USD-INR has formed a flagpole pattern over the last three weeks. If it breaks out, we could see 90 very soon. If it falls below 88.60, the pattern will fail. Right now, the rupee is weakening both against the US dollar and against other global currencies like the euro, GBP, and Swiss franc. This is bad for our purchasing power. Trips abroad and imports will become much more expensive.

Between January and October of that year, many large-cap stocks crashed 30–90%. Even by 2012, many of them had not recovered. Unitech was down 96%, Suzlon 95%, RComm 90%, DLF 83%, ABB 65%, and even SBI was 31% down. This shows the importance of having a clear strategy during a crash. Not all stocks recover. Each crash brings new winners, and the same stocks do not always bounce back. You must rotate into sectors that will recover.

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    Weekend Investing Daily Byte – 30 September 2025