Where is the market headed?
The weekend saw another round of Trump’s tantrums where he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China. In response, China hit back saying it would stop exporting rare earth minerals, metals, and other critical items to the US. But as has been the pattern, within 48 hours, Trump softened his stance and declared that China was a friend again. The markets narrowly escaped a potential scare even though US markets fell around 3.5% on Friday. This kind of policy flip-flop creates major trouble for short-term traders who find it difficult to stay on the right side of the market amid such unpredictability.
Leaving that aside, the Indian market looks quite strong. The setup on the charts also seems healthy and we’ll discuss that further.
The major story doing the rounds right now, however, is in the precious metals space. There is a massive shortage of silver. Silver producers are saying they have nothing left to deliver. There are even rumors that silver is being airlifted from London to the COMEX in the US because of short delivery issues. This situation could blow up in a big way because for every one unit of physical silver, there are thousands of futures contracts promised.
Market Overview
Coming back to the markets, Nifty was slightly down by 0.23% from the previous session. But considering the two strong sessions before this, it’s not something to worry about. Despite being down from yesterday, Nifty remains in a bullish zone. Out of the last eight sessions, only one has been red, showing strong recovery from recent lows.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Jr was down 0.17%, Midcaps were flat, and Small caps were still in the green with a 0.29% gain.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty closed flat but looks strong on charts, maintaining its inverse head and shoulders pattern which could take it up to around 58,000.
GOLD
Gold was the big mover of the day, up 1.33%. The official price stands around ₹73,200 per 10 grams, though there’s a premium on top of that. Silver premiums are even higher, ranging between ₹15,000 to ₹25,000 per kilogram, yet deliveries remain unavailable.
Our affiliate company that deals in gold and silver has almost no stock left, except for small denomination coins. The parent company MTC has also declared they have nothing to deliver.
Advance Decline Ratio
Market breadth wasn’t great, with 167 advances against 333 declines, but given the strong previous sessions, this pullback was expected.
Heat Maps
Among key movers, Tata Motors lost 2.68%. FMCG stocks like Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Tata Consumer Products were weak. IT names such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro also slipped, while ONGC and Coal India saw declines. On the other hand, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, and Axis Bank posted small gains.
In the Nifty Next 50 space, losses were seen in DMart after results, while Jubilant Engravia stood out with an 8.4% rise following a strong quarterly performance.
Mover Of The Day
Sectoral Overview
Sector-wise, there wasn’t much action except in the capital markets segment, which gained 2.35%. In fact, capital market stocks have been leading over the last week with a 5.37% rise. Stocks like KFin Technologies, UTI AMC, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, Motilal Oswal, and BSE have been strong movers, likely indicating some insider expectations around regulatory changes or expiry policies. On the downside, Defense, FMCG, IT, and Tourism stocks faced moderate corrections.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Capital Market Index
U.S. Market
In global markets, US indices were hit hard on Friday, with NASDAQ down 3.56%, Dow Jones 1.9%, S&P 500 2.7%, and Russell 2000 also falling. But in context, the last 12 months have still been strong with NASDAQ up 21% and Dow Jones up 6%, so the correction doesn’t look alarming.
Tweets Of the Day
In the tweet of the day, gold continues to hit new highs — around $4,060 when mentioned, and soon after, $4,080. Many people keep saying gold has gone up too much and will fall. Of course, one day it will. Everything in the market moves in cycles. But that doesn’t mean one should avoid participating on the upside. It’s like saying, “One day I’ll die, so why live today?” You can still make profits before the fall and protect your gains when trends reverse. The goal should be to have bigger gains than losses, not to avoid opportunities out of fear.
The same logic applies to the stock market. Nifty, despite all the global turmoil, is just 4% away from its all-time high of around 26,200. That’s just one good day or a gap-up away. Anything can happen — even a positive global headline could send markets surging. Those waiting on the sidelines might miss the move of the year or even the decade. The charts are clearly telling us that despite all the bad news, the market remains resilient.
