Where is the market headed?
Another good day following a strong run on the 15th. The RBI’s intervention in the forex markets has helped the rupee gain against the dollar in the last 24 hours. This move has added a strong tailwind to the recent market momentum. It seems both the government and the Reserve Bank are sensing that we are standing at the cusp of the next leg of growth. Their decision to step in also suggests confidence in the current forex position of the country.
At the same time, FIIs have reduced their selling activity sharply over the past week. There is also optimism surrounding the possible signing of the Indo-US tariff treaty soon.
Reports are emerging that Trump has posted about Modi agreeing to phase out oil purchases from Russia over time, though it’s uncertain how true that is. There are also rumors that India may agree to buy around 15 to 20 billion dollars’ worth of oil from the US.
Clearly, murmurs of a deal are doing the rounds, and the market seems to be taking cues from that. As they say, “Bhao Bhagwanche” — price is the ultimate truth — and the charts reflect that sentiment. The markets now appear well-positioned to take the next leg up.
Market Overview
Looking at the Nifty chart, it went up 1% today, and over the last eight or nine sessions, it has risen from 24,500 to nearly 25,600 — a gain of about 1,100 points. This is a meaningful recovery and a sign of strength. As mentioned earlier, any positive news on the tariff front was expected to light a rocket under the market, given how it has held steady despite multiple negative triggers in recent months. This setup looks favorable for further gains ahead.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior rose 0.49%, midcaps gained 0.48%, and small caps added 0.38%. Small caps, however, remain stretched according to many fundamental analysts.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
The Nifty Bank index climbed 1.1%, nearing its previous highs. The inverted head and shoulders pattern discussed in earlier sessions is now nearing its target, once again proving how well these technical setups can work if followed patiently.
GOLD
Gold continued its unstoppable run, up 0.9% today to reach ₹1,26,956 per 10 grams officially, though it’s hard to find it for less than ₹1,30,000 in the market once GST and making charges are added. Gold is showing signs of a shifting global order. A wonderful analogy shared on Twitter compared gold to a lighthouse and fiat currencies to a sinking ship — it’s not that gold is rising, but that the currencies are falling.
Gold hardly grows by more than 1-2% per year in new supply, but fiat money can be printed infinitely. So while we say “gold prices are going up,” in reality, gold remains constant — it’s the paper currencies that are losing value.
SILVER
Silver, added by popular demand, was down 0.55% today but remains strong at around ₹1,58,000 officially, with actual prices closer to ₹1.9-2 lakh per kg. There’s been talk of a potential silver shortage that could even cause exchange defaults if paper shorts are overwhelmed by physical buying — a concept explained in detail in a recent video about backwardation and physical demand pressure.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio today favored the bulls, with 302 stocks advancing against 197 declining.
Heat Maps
Major movers included HDFC Bank, Reliance, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra, Titan, Tata Motors, and Maruti.
Nestle saw a sharp jump, leading to strength in the FMCG space along with Tata Consumer, Britannia, and Colgate. Steel stocks, Motherson Sumi, and Real estate names also performed well.
Mover Of The Day
The top mover of the day was BLS, up 16.5%, after news of securing new contracts just days after reports of the opposite.
Sectoral Overview
Among sectors, FMCG led the rally with a 2% gain, followed by real estate, which rose 1.9% for the second straight day. Private banks added 1.5%, and autos gained 1.27%. With Dhanteras approaching — India’s biggest shopping day for autos, electronics, and gold — festive buying is clearly showing up in these sectors. PSU banks, however, slipped 0.44%. Overall, it was a strong and broad-based day.
Sector of the Day
Nifty FMCG Index
In FMCG, Nestle led with a 4.4% jump, followed by Varun Beverages up 3.6%, Tata Consumer, Britannia, and Colgate also advancing.
Nifty Realty Index
Real estate looks ready to break out of its long consolidation channel. The overall index was up 5% today with names like Godrej Properties, Sobha, Lodha, and Signature Global moving higher. Sources say Oberoi Realty may soon launch a major project in Gurugram, which could be a key trigger for the stock.
U.S. Market
In the US, the markets were largely flat. The Dow Jones was unchanged, S&P 500 gained 0.4%, Nasdaq rose 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.97%. Over the past week, small caps have gained about 2%, even as major indices have been negative over the past month.
This rotation — where large-cap techs take a breather and smaller names move up — is a healthy sign. Stocks like AMD (up 9.4%), Morgan Stanley (4.7%), Bank of America, Intel, and Alphabet all saw solid gains.
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Tweets Of the Day
The tweet of the day came from Ritesh Jain, highlighting the growing government liability from Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs). In April 2025, this liability stood at ₹1,20,000 crores, and in just a few months, it has ballooned to ₹1,50,000 crores. These liabilities will persist until 2032 when the final batch of SGBs matures. The government’s sale of SGBs was effectively a “short position” on gold — they took money from investors assuming gold prices would remain flat, based on the trend seen between 2012 and 2015. This turned out to be a major blunder, as gold has since appreciated, leaving taxpayers to cover the losses. It’s now effectively a “Ladla SGB Holder Program,” where the general public pays the interest and redemption to SGB buyers.
Another tweet by Sonia Shenoy highlighted that Nifty hit 25,500, up 1,000 points since the September 30th low. Historically, October tends to be a weak month, but this time it’s turning out to be one of the best, with a sharp 1,000-point rally. If Q2 earnings don’t bring major disappointments, we may soon see fresh all-time highs.
The market’s undercurrent feels strong, and with macro clarity improving — especially around tariffs and forex stability — FIIs could soon return aggressively. The RBI’s proactive stance also shows confidence in the rupee.
