Where is the market headed?
Asian markets were doing well this morning, and the continuation of the expectation that the Fed is going to cut rates soon has created some positive ripples across the region. The Indian market followed this trend, and both the Nifty and the Sensex hit a new all-time high today. They couldn’t sustain those levels for long and eventually came off, but technically the market has still made a new high—and that’s usually an event that increases the probability of markets moving higher rather than lower.
The rest of the market is yet to participate heavily with the Nifty, but the fact that the index is making a new high tells you where the underlying strength is, especially in large-cap names.
Market Overview
Nifty chart doesn’t look bad at all. We had a fantastic move yesterday and a consolidation today near the close. We technically made a new high at 26,310 but closed at 26,215. That’s perfectly fine. We may continue upward or consolidate here for a while before the next move. Unless the Wednesday candle’s low is broken, the broader trend remains positive, making it a low-risk stop point for index traders. Nifty closed up 0.04%. Nifty Junior was slightly down at –0.17%. Midcaps were absolutely flat, and smallcaps fell 0.36%. As you move from large caps toward small caps, the profit-taking becomes deeper, which is quite visible today. Bank Nifty was the standout performer, hitting another new high and ending 0.35% higher.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was slightly down at –0.17%.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Midcaps were absolutely flat, and smallcaps fell 0.36%. As you move from large caps toward small caps, the profit-taking becomes deeper, which is quite visible today.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty was the standout performer, hitting another new high and ending 0.35% higher.
GOLD
Gold has also been moving up and now stands at Rs 12,647 per gram.
SILVER
Silver is also inching close to its all-time high, forming a cup-and-handle pattern around Rs 61,851 with a 2% gain.
Advance Decline Ratio
Market breadth showed declines outpacing advances, though after the first half of the day both advanced and decline counts plateaued. There was no major pressure toward the end—just typical profit-taking—leaving the market mostly flat with 180 advances and 320 declines.
Heat Maps
Most advances came from the banking and finance space. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, and Shriram Finance all moved up, while SBI slipped a bit. Autos were down, and Reliance, ONGC, and a few energy stocks followed the same path. Some IT stocks were also weak, but infra and select pharma counters saw gains. Cement and steel were under pressure.
The Nifty 50 heat map showed good gains in LTIM, Hindustan Zinc, PFC, REC, Canara Bank, Motherson, ABB, Chola Finance, and LIC, while CG Power, IOC, BPCL, Pidilite, HAL, Godrej Consumer, Britannia, and United Spirits saw declines.
Mover Of The Day
Among the movers of the day, Ashok Leyland surged 7.25% on news of a potential merger with its finance arm, sparking strong buying interest.
GMDC rallied 4.75% after the cabinet approved a rare-earth magnet program, lifting sentiment around the stock.
Sectoral Overview
Sector trends were modestly positive, with media gaining 0.8%, capital markets up 0.6%, financial services up 0.5%, and banks up 0.4%. On the downside, oil and gas, real estate, energy, and PSU banks lost between 0.6% and 0.7%, while consumption and CPSE slipped 0.4%. Overall, it wasn’t a highly polarized session but a reasonably balanced one.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Capital Market Index
Capital market stocks are showing a very strong U-shaped recovery and have now hit fresh all-time highs. It’s surprising to see this happening so soon, especially given the volatility around weekly expiries. Stocks like Nippon Life, BSE, 360 One Wam, MCX, and Nuvama are leading the segment.
U.S. Market
US markets were very positive in the last session, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell posting gains between 0.6% and 1.8%.
Oracle, AMD, Target, Broadcom, and Intel were among the main contributors. Oracle, which has been beaten down recently, finally saw a decent bounce. Some of these names may be part of the WeekendInvesting US strategy, though this is not a recommendation.
S&P 500 Heatmap
The S&P 500 heat map also showed Microsoft gaining slightly, Google slipping, Nvidia up 1.3%, and AVGO up 3.26%. Tesla moved up, Netflix also gained, while Eli Lilly was down. JP Morgan and Berkshire inched upward as well.
Tweet Of The Day
We would like to highlight the new all-time high on the Nifty. I want to reiterate—don’t be afraid of all-time highs. Historically, all-time highs have a higher probability of leading to even higher levels. While not every all-time high results in continuation, the odds favor staying invested at such points rather than avoiding them.
The current structure looks similar to previous corrections where the market hit an all-time high, consolidated for a few months, and then rallied sharply.
The 40% move we saw after the 2022 high is a reminder that such things are absolutely possible. All-time highs often feel uncomfortable, but that’s exactly when markets tend to climb.
The next tweet was a re-tweet from Sam Callahan, showing how Tether—the company behind USDT—is accumulating gold at a massive scale. Tether bought more gold last quarter than every central bank in the world. It’s mind-boggling that the “central bank” of the crypto world, whose ecosystem has traditionally dismissed gold, is aggressively buying it. If stablecoins continue to grow and more issuers start building reserves, demand for gold could explode. Tether now holds 116 tons of gold—more than many countries like Ghana or Nigeria. It’s an incredible statistic worth paying attention to.
