Where is the market headed?
The market continues to move on a negative trajectory as the week comes to a close. On this Friday episode, the Nifty has recorded its fifth consecutive red candle, marking a difficult stretch for Indian indices.
The major headline dominating the financial landscape is the U.S. Supreme Court’s pending verdict on the tariff situation, a decision with massive implications for global trade. While the week actually began on a positive note, that optimism was short-lived.
In the very first hour of Monday’s session, the Nifty scaled a new all-time high of 26,373, but it has been a downward slide ever since. These five consecutive negative sessions have brought the market back down from its peak, making the current weekly candle a very decisive and important one for investors to analyze.
Geopolitical tensions appear to be easing slightly after the U.S. canceled a second wave of attacks on Venezuela, a move that has provided positive traction for international markets. This shift helped Asian indices like the Nikkei and markets in China experience an uptick, while European markets also opened strongly.
However, the Indian market has not yet mirrored this global recovery, continuing to struggle under local and specific international pressures.
Beyond the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, all eyes are on the U.S. unemployment data. The unemployment rate has been steadily rising since 2023, and since the U.S. serves as the “mother market,” its economic health significantly impacts global perspectives. Today’s non-farm payrolls data and the 10:00 AM Supreme Court announcement are the primary triggers for current volatility.
India is currently facing a “double hit” regarding trade: there is an existing 50% tariff on exports and an additional threat of 500% tariffs for countries importing Russian oil. A favorable verdict ruling out these tariffs could trigger a massive rally, providing much-needed relief to export-oriented sectors that have been under fire for a long time.
Market Overview
Looking at the numbers, the Nifty ended the day down 0.75%, closing at 25,683. By breaking below its 50-day moving average, it has moved past a key support level. The next potential floor is expected around the 25,300 mark, where the 200-day moving average may act as a psychological support. While the long-term perspective remains positive as long as the index stays above the 200 EMA, the short and medium-term outlook is currently negative.
Nifty Next 50
Other indices tell a similar story; the Nifty Next 50 fell 1.02%, with two massive red candles essentially wiping out the gains of the previous eight or nine sessions.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid-caps followed suit with a 0.88% drop, while the small-cap index saw absolute carnage, falling 1.7%. Small caps are now struggling near the 16,100 level, a point they had previously fought hard to recover from.
Bank Nifty
GOLD
In other asset classes, gold remained relatively stable at 0.16% after a previous fall, consolidating around the 13,734 mark. Silver, however, showed strength with a 1.93% jump, recovering well after two sessions of profit booking.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The overall market breadth was quite weak, with 417 declines against only 83 advances.
Heat Maps
While there were small pockets of resilience in IT stocks like TCS and Infosys, and marginal gains in Reliance and ONGC, most other sectors were beaten down. Auto and consumer stocks suffered in anticipation of the tariff verdict, and real estate was the worst-performing sector of the day, dropping 2.26%. Major names like Godrej Properties and DLF took a significant hit as the sector fell for the fourth consecutive session.
Mover Of The Day
Sectoral Overview
Sector of the Day
Nifty Realty Index
Nifty Capital Market Index
U.S. Market
Tweet Of The Day
Finally, it is worth considering the impact of inflation on long-term wealth. Looking at data from 2011 to 2026, the value of 100 rupees has eroded significantly due to inflation, now holding the purchasing power of just 44 rupees. This highlight is meant to encourage investors to look at their returns through an inflation-adjusted lens.
While many remain hesitant to move funds from traditional fixed deposits to the equity market, history shows that over the last 15 years, mid-caps have delivered an 8% alpha over inflation, while large and small caps have provided around 5% additional growth. Being smart about beating inflation is essential for true wealth creation.
