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Nifty on the Daily Chart

This week turned out to be a clear red week for the markets, and once again, the Trump-related narrative has returned to the forefront. Social media has been flooded with clips and commentary suggesting that the US administration wants India’s Prime Minister to initiate talks and resolve the ongoing trade issues. However, that call has not happened so far. For reasons that remain unclear, a near-term resolution to the US–India trade deal does not appear imminent. On top of that, the threat of an extreme 500% tariff proposal continues to hover in the background. If something as drastic as that were to materialize, the consequences would be unpredictable. For now, this remains a high-stakes negotiation, with both sides holding firm positions. Until clarity emerges, markets are likely to remain volatile and reactive, swinging back and forth with every headline.

At the same time, we are now less than three weeks away from the Union Budget, which introduces another layer of anticipation into the market. Certain pockets have already started showing movement as investors begin positioning themselves for possible policy announcements, incentives, or allocations. Historically, this pre-budget phase often leads to selective sectoral action rather than broad-based rallies, and early signs of that behavior are beginning to surface.

Looking at the Nifty daily chart, the damage from this week is clearly visible. All five trading sessions ended in the red, resulting in a complete breakdown from the optimism we had just last week when the index was flirting with fresh all-time highs. From those elevated levels, Nifty has seen a sharp pullback, breaking some short-term trend lines in the process. This kind of price action suggests that the market will need time to repair before attempting another meaningful upside move. The index ended the week down 2.5%, which is a significant shift in momentum over such a short period.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

On the weekly chart, Nifty has retraced almost exactly back to its previous breakout zone. This level has now been tested multiple times — the market attempted a breakout, failed, tried again, managed to hold briefly, and has now returned to the same area once more. If this zone fails to hold decisively, the structure could weaken further, potentially leading to additional downside before a more durable base is formed. That said, while price action near the highs looks fragile, market internals at the large-cap end are still relatively stable. The bigger damage continues to be concentrated in mid-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap stocks, which have borne the brunt of selling pressure.

S&P 500 Overview

In contrast, the US markets remain relentless. The S&P 500 gained 1.57% this week, continuing its strong upward march despite repeated warnings of overvaluation and macroeconomic stress. Analysts are now openly projecting targets as high as 10,000 by 2030 for US indices. Whether it is AI-driven optimism, consumption resilience, or sheer liquidity, US markets continue to absorb negative narratives and push higher with remarkable consistency.

GOLD Overview

Gold, meanwhile, delivered an exceptional performance, rising 4.37% for the week and closing around ₹13,862 per gram. The rally continues to confound skeptics who have repeatedly called for a top at every new high. History shows that attempting to predict the top of a strong trend is futile — true tops are only visible in hindsight, after meaningful drawdowns of 10–20%. The wiser approach is to respect the dominant trend. As long as the long-term trend remains firmly upward, short-term countertrend moves should not distract from the bigger picture.

What makes gold’s move even more striking is that the Dollar Index also rose this week by 0.72%. Typically, a strengthening dollar exerts downward pressure on gold prices. Yet, despite this headwind, gold held near its highs. This divergence highlights the underlying strength and demand for gold in the current global environment, signaling that investors are seeking protection beyond currency movements alone.

Dollar Index Overview

Dollar Index remained largely stable, rising marginally by about 0.39%. While it has not shown meaningful weakness yet, it is also not exerting aggressive pressure on risk assets. This neutral behavior keeps the macro backdrop relatively balanced for now.

Global Indices Overview

In the global indices overview (in dollar terms), India once again stands out — unfortunately, for the wrong reasons. Both Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 fell between 2.7% and 2.9%, making India the worst-performing major market globally this week. In contrast, Brazil surged 4.6%, Russell 2000 gained strongly, Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.4%, and US indices including the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all ended higher. Germany also posted gains. Apart from Hang Seng, which slipped marginally, no other major market showed the kind of weakness seen in India. Clearly, the current geopolitical pressure appears uniquely concentrated on India.

Global Momentum

The global momentum scorecard reinforces this divergence. Brazil has climbed to the top ranks, followed by Canada, Russell 2000, and the FTSE 100. India, which had begun improving its relative position a few weeks ago, has now slipped back into the bottom tier, alongside Australia and Hang Seng. The loss of relative momentum is evident and aligns closely with the recent price action.

Benchmark Indices Overview

Domestically, the benchmark indices overview paints a bleak picture. All major indices declined between 2.5% and 3.5% for the week. It was a broad-based selloff, leaving little room for optimism at the index level.

Sectoral Overview

The sectoral overview was equally discouraging. Almost every sector ended in the red. Defense was the lone exception, managing a modest 1.4% gain, supported by expectations of increased allocations and order announcements in the upcoming budget. Beyond that, the damage was widespread — oil & gas, tourism, energy, and infrastructure stocks fell sharply, with losses ranging from 4.7% to nearly 6%. Overall, it was an uncomfortable week from a sectoral perspective.

Finally, the sectoral momentum scorecard still shows some pockets of relative strength. PSU banks remain at the top, followed by metals, autos, and the broader banking space. However, even metals have seen significant slippage in the last week. At the bottom of the rankings are tourism, media, energy, and FMCG — sectors that have been comprehensively beaten down. Tactical opportunities may still emerge in sectors like defense, IT, and pharma over very short timeframes, but for now, the broader message is clear: stick with relative strength and avoid persistent laggards.

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Markets reward patience — but rarely make it easy.
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Don’t just diversify — balance wisely.

Rebalance Update

We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you

Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.