The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
Check out our past newsletters.
Nifty on the Daily Chart
There have been significant geopolitical shifts unfolding globally, and these developments are increasingly influencing market behavior. We are seeing signals from multiple regions — Canada, China, and even Germany — where the German Chancellor has openly stated that Russia should be considered part of Europe and that friendly relations should be restored. The broader underlying theme here is that countries are actively trying to diversify and de-risk their dependence on the United States. Each nation appears to be working on a Plan B in case US trade access becomes constrained or weaponized, as has been witnessed earlier with countries like Venezuela and Iran.
Conversations around Cuba are also emerging, while Taiwan remains relatively insulated for now due to its trade alignment and investment commitments with the US. These shifting alliances and strategic recalibrations are dominating the global equity narrative, with new developments emerging almost daily and creating localized disruptions across markets.
For India, this evolving global backdrop has translated into a wait-and-watch phase. There is no decisive trend emerging yet, and markets seem to be in a holding pattern, reacting selectively rather than moving decisively. Each fresh geopolitical headline introduces uncertainty in one pocket of the market or another, making sustained directional conviction difficult.
Adding to this cautious tone, recent earnings from large heavyweight companies such as Infosys, TCS, Reliance, and HDFC Bank have been underwhelming. While these results have not triggered a sharp breakdown, they also haven’t provided the kind of positive surprise that would propel markets decisively higher. As a result, the market likely needs more time to consolidate, even though headline indices continue to hover close to their all-time highs.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
Looking at the last four trading sessions, the market has essentially gone nowhere. After a sharp fall in the previous week, this week has been more about consolidation. Nifty ended the week almost flat, and on the weekly chart, prices are once again near the previous peak. While the market has not broken down decisively yet, there is vulnerability below these levels, where a breach could lead to a retest of lower zones. That said, the prevailing undercurrent suggests that the market is reluctant to move away from the all-time high zone easily, indicating persistent underlying support.
S&P 500 Overview
S&P 500 was down marginally by about 0.38% for the week. However, even this decline comes in the context of indices trading very close to their all-time highs. The pattern in US markets has been consistent — one week of gains pushing new highs, followed by a mild pullback, and then another attempt higher. This behavior continues despite widespread acknowledgment that valuations are historically elevated, with the S&P 500 trading at 23–24 times earnings. Historically, such valuation levels have been associated with long periods of muted returns, but whether that plays out again remains to be seen.
GOLD Overview
Gold, meanwhile, continues its steady ascent, rising another 2.4% this week to around ₹14,200 per gram. Not long ago, gold was trading near ₹6,000 per gram, highlighting the magnitude of this move. What is more important than the price rise itself is the structural shift in how gold is being perceived globally. Central banks, institutions, and long-term capital pools are increasingly allocating to gold.
Notably, central banks outside the US now collectively hold more gold than US Treasuries — a profound shift in reserve preference. Much like the “frog in the pan” analogy, this transition is happening gradually, which is why it remains underappreciated by many. While some still view this as just another commodity cycle, others argue that the world is moving toward a multipolar monetary system where gold acts as a neutral reserve asset. Speculation around China’s true gold reserves and the possibility of a future gold-backed yuan or stablecoin further underscores how transformative this shift could become over the next few years.
Dollar Index Overview
Interestingly, the Dollar Index has not fallen meaningfully, despite US policymakers expressing a preference for a weaker dollar. A softer dollar would help re-industrialize the US by making exports more competitive and attracting foreign investment. At some stage, efforts may be made to engineer a decline in the dollar, which would likely be highly supportive for emerging markets and precious metals. For now, however, the dollar remains resilient.
Global Indices Overview
In dollar-denominated performance over the last week, Europe and France were among the weaker markets, while India once again underperformed with losses of about 0.8–0.9% across Nifty 50 and Nifty 500. US indices like NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 also ended lower. In contrast, Japan rose nearly 3%, Hang Seng gained over 2%, Australia advanced close to 2%, and Russell 2000 was up about 2%. This clearly shows that global market leadership is rotating rapidly. Over the past year, India remains among the weakest performers globally, while Brazil, Japan, China, and Germany have led. Over a five-year horizon, however, India’s performance remains broadly in line with peers.
Global Momentum
When we look at the global momentum score across multiple timeframes, Brazil appears at the top, followed by Japan and Russell 2000. At the lower end sit Nifty 50, Nifty 500, and CAC 40, indicating continued relative weakness in Indian indices from a momentum perspective.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Domestically, the benchmark indices showed a very muted week, with only Nifty Next 50 managing a modest 0.53% gain. All other indices were largely flat, offering little in terms of actionable signals.
Sectoral Overview
From a sectoral standpoint, PSU banks stood out positively. Banking as a whole is seeing renewed interest, driven by expectations of mergers, recapitalization, and structural announcements in the upcoming budget, which is now less than two weeks away. Metals surged 4.6%, helped by reports that China may be cutting production capacity. Capital market stocks rallied on news related to the potential clearance of the NSE IPO. Commodities also performed well, and IT stocks saw some late-week strength. On the downside, real estate, pharma, autos, defense, and tourism all ended the week weaker.
Finally, the sectoral momentum overview shows PSU banks, metals, and capital markets occupying the top ranks. At the bottom of the table are media, real estate, tourism, FMCG, and pharma. A notable shift is that autos have slipped lower, while oil & gas is attempting a short-term recovery. Capital market stocks are also showing signs of renewed short-term momentum.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We have been sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.
Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:
• Strategy updates & rebalances
• Exclusive announcements & offers
Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels
Introducing All Seasons
Markets reward patience — but rarely make it easy.
Even index investors — owning India’s top 50 companies through the Nifty 50 — struggle to stay the course. Drawdowns hurt, flat markets drain conviction, and emotions often break compounding faster than crashes do.
That’s exactly why we built All Seasons — a simple, rule-based strategy that helps you stay invested through every phase of the market by dynamically balancing between Nifty 50 (for growth) and Gold (for stability).
📈 Growth — Nifty 50
Own India’s strongest 50 companies — the backbone of our economy. Participate in the nation’s long-term growth story without picking stocks or timing entries.
🛡️ Stability — Gold
Crises strike without warning. Gold rises when equities stumble — acting as your portfolio’s natural hedge and emotional anchor.
⚙️ The Engine Behind It
All Seasons shifts allocations every fortnight based on market conditions:
- When equities run hot, exposure trims automatically.
- When they’re beaten down, the system increases weight.
- Gold moves in the opposite direction — balancing every phase.
No guesswork. No emotion. No fear of missing out — just a calm, intelligent portfolio that adapts to markets for you.
Who is this for?
✅ Index investors who want smoother participation
✅ New investors who prefer ETFs over stock-picking
✅ Professionals who can’t invest in direct equities
✅ Seasoned investors looking to add stability to their core
✅ Anyone who wants to stay in control without daily decisions
Price: ₹4,999 per year
Recommended Capital: ₹2–30 lakh
Introducing Mi Allcap GOLD
Mi Allcap GOLD is designed for investors who want broad equity exposure with a built-in hedge. It combines:
25% Large Caps – for stability
25% Mid Caps – for growth
25% Small Caps – for alpha
25% Gold ETFs – as a permanent hedge
Mi AllCap GOLD follows a rules-based, momentum-driven approach to select the strongest stocks in each segment. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to ensure it stays aligned with market leadership — with no human discretion involved.
Why Mi AllCap GOLD?
All-in-one exposure to all equity tiers + gold
Rebalance Frequency : Monthly
Momentum Style : Rotational
Whether you’re just starting your wealth journey or looking to anchor your core portfolio, Mi AllCap GOLD offers a powerful blend of momentum, diversification, and downside protection.
Don’t just diversify — balance wisely.
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
