Where is the market headed?
The market displayed a sense of indecision today, largely influenced by negative cues from overseas. The NASDAQ has been falling, and tech stocks are tripping over recent news suggesting that AI agents could replace a significant portion of software development efforts within the next six to twelve months. This has created a great deal of turmoil for IT services companies both in India and the U.S., where traditional billable consulting hours and domain-specialized models are being challenged.
In the precious metals complex, volatility remains extreme. Silver touched $88 yesterday, dropped to $64 this morning, and recovered to $75 during this recording. This level of fluctuation makes it nearly impossible to conduct steady business or trades.
Reflecting on market psychology, a recent tweet from Mr. Rajiv Mehta compared casino gambling to day trading. Statistics suggest that while 13 out of 100 gamblers leave a casino as winners, only 1 out of 100 day traders reliably beats the market. SEBI statistics support this reality. Despite this, many professionals have left stable jobs for options and day trading, often accumulating significant debt for themselves and their families. This trend is likely why the Finance Minister hiked the STT, serving as a nudge from the government to move away from the pursuit of “easy money.”
With thirty years of experience in the industry, it is clear that mastering sustainable trading is rare. The burnout rate is high, and maintaining the necessary meditative, unbiased stance is difficult. If one is looking to lose money, a casino might at least offer a more enjoyable environment.
Market Overview
The markets remained very flat today, with the Nifty up only 0.2% to close at 25,693. A positive sign is that the market did not crash to close the gap from four days ago, maintaining its current range.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior was flat at 0.13%, mid-caps stayed at 0.02%, and small caps ended down 0.34% after being pulled back up from lower levels. While there is a positive undercurrent, it lacks strength.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
Banking was flat at 0.09% up.
GOLD
Gold rose 2.29% to close at 15,033, while Silver rose 5% to 2,28,000, though it remains significantly down from recent highs.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio stood at 200 advances to 300 declines, but the fact that advances moved up throughout the day is encouraging.
Heat Maps
The heatmap showed a mixed bag. FMCG performed well, with ITC gaining 5% and Hindustan Unilever also rising. Other gainers in the Nifty included Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Bharti Airtel. Conversely, HDFC Life, TCS, Infosys, HDFC Bank, State Bank, and Asian Paints were among the losers.
In the Nifty Next 50, LIC moved up rapidly, joined by Vedanta, GAIL, HAL, BPCL, and Pidilite. Solar Industries also performed well. Metal stocks recovered from earlier losses to finish mixed, while CG Power, Bosch, and ABB are holding steady.
Mover Of The Day
The mover of the day was Hitachi Energy, which surged 14% following Q3 profits of 90%, continuing a long-term power move.
Sectoral Overview
Sectoral trends remain mixed. IT stocks fell 1.47% today and are down 6.23% over the last month. Real estate has been the biggest recent loser, down 9.79%, though it has attempted a recovery lately. FMCG acted as a defensive play today, rising 2.2%, led by Unilever and ITC. This is the first time FMCG has looked up since the start of the year.
Sector of the Day
Nifty FMCG Index
U.S. Market
In the U.S., the previous session saw heavy selling in stocks like Qualcomm, Eli Lilly, ServiceNow, Oracle, and Palantir, which fell between 6% and 9%. The NASDAQ dropped approximately 1.5% and the Russell 1.7%. Major names like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, AMD, Nvidia, Walmart, and Tesla also faced selling pressure despite some posting fantastic results.
Tweet Of The Day
Looking at Bitcoin, a five-year chart reveals a repetitive pattern. A similar formation between 2021 and mid-2022 led to a collapse that met its target in 2023. Currently, with Bitcoin at $64,000, the pattern suggests a potential target of $40,000.
These patterns are respected not because of magic, but because as more people believe in them, their actions drive the price toward that logical outcome. We will see if the market eventually reaches that $40,000 level.
