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Nifty on the Daily Chart
The Nifty daily chart, over the last few sessions, has looked visibly unsettled. Until about two days ago, the broader global narrative of an AI-led liquidation across markets was not really playing out in price action. But suddenly, in the last two or three trading sessions, we have seen tremendous pressure building up in the IT industry — not just in India, but globally. And it is not restricted to traditional IT companies alone. Any industry that is perceived to be materially impacted by artificial intelligence has witnessed sharp volatility. A meaningful number of stocks have entered a weak phase as investors attempt to price in what AI could mean for business models.
At this point, it is still not entirely clear what the ultimate margin impact of AI adoption will be. On one hand, productivity improvements could be enormous. On the other hand, pricing power and competitive intensity could change in unpredictable ways. The net margin outcome remains uncertain. For example, Bajaj Finance recently stated in its conference call that it is aggressively ramping up AI usage — and interestingly, the stock responded positively. This suggests that markets are rewarding companies that proactively articulate how they will use AI to enhance efficiency and growth rather than being disrupted by it. More companies will likely need to communicate clearly on this front to calm investor fears that AI could “consume” their core businesses.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
Technically, the market is in a slightly uncomfortable zone. There is a visible gap below Friday’s close and another gap above Friday’s high. Such gap structures typically signal the potential for rapid movement once either side is filled. So from a purely technical standpoint, the market could accelerate sharply in either direction once these gaps resolve.
We continue to face resistance around the 26,400 zone. Time and again, Nifty has attempted to move past this level but has retreated. However, this need not be interpreted as a structural weakness. It could simply be a case of the market consolidating within a range and absorbing supply before a breakout. I remain reasonably confident that the market will eventually attempt an upward move. That said, FIIs have not been supportive. A large sell figure from FIIs on Friday added to the nervousness and contributed to the pullback.
S&P 500 Overview
The US markets also declined this week by about 1.39%. However, on a longer-term chart, the drop is hardly noticeable. The structural uptrend there remains intact, and the weakness appears more like short-term volatility than trend damage.
GOLD Overview
Gold, meanwhile, has closed the week quite strongly. Despite repeated commentary suggesting that the gold rally is exhausted, the metal continues to demonstrate resilience. A weekly close at record levels — up roughly 1.5% — reinforces the strength of the longer-term trend.
Dollar Index Overview
Dollar Index has continued to soften, closing near 96.8, down about 0.82%. A weakening dollar generally provides tailwinds for emerging markets and commodities, although currency-specific dynamics can still alter local outcomes.
Global Indices Overview
Looking at global indices in dollar terms, most markets were largely flat this week. However, Japan surged an impressive 7.8% in dollar terms. South Korea’s Kospi was even stronger, rising 10.6%. Australia gained 4.8%, while Canada and Brazil advanced 2.6% and 3% respectively. Certain markets are clearly exhibiting strong momentum. In contrast, India was down roughly 1% in dollar terms, indicating relative underperformance.
Global Momentum
In the global indices momentum rankings, South Korea, Brazil, and Japan occupy the top positions. Meanwhile, the US and India currently sit toward the bottom of the momentum spectrum. This relative positioning matters for global capital flows, as investors often rotate toward markets demonstrating stronger price strength.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Domestically, benchmark indices saw only minor gains in small caps, while most other indices closed in the red. The broader market remains fragile even if headline indices appear relatively stable.
Sectoral Overview
Sectorally, IT stocks were heavily sold, declining 8.2% — the sharpest fall among major sectors. On the positive side, media rose 5.2%, while defense and autos gained between 2% and 3%. PSU banks also advanced approximately 3%, indicating pockets of strength despite the broader weakness.
The sectoral momentum score provides additional insight. PSU banks currently lead the rankings, followed by metals and autos. At the bottom sit IT, FMCG, and real estate — no surprises given recent price action. What is interesting is the shifting short-term dynamics: commodities, CPSEs, oil & gas, and energy are losing relative ground, while media, defense, autos, and PSU banks are gaining traction. Metals, despite being high in ranking, are beginning to slip in short-term momentum. Reading these shifts carefully on a weekly basis helps identify where leadership is rotating and where capital is quietly exiting.
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Rebalance Update
