Tavi Costa’s Data – A Serious Signal

Tavi Costa recently shared compelling data on X about the global gold mining industry. The dataset tracks major gold discoveries worldwide — but only those with at least 2 million ounces of gold. Smaller discoveries are not included. This means we are looking only at meaningful, large-scale finds that can materially impact future supply.

The Discovery Boom (1990s–2010)

From the 1990s through roughly 2006–2010, there was a steady stream of major gold discoveries. Multiple deposits exceeding two million ounces were being found regularly. Exploration activity was strong, and the industry had a healthy pipeline of future production.

At that time, future supply looked secure.

Post-2011: A Sharp Collapse in Discoveries

In 2011, gold prices touched nearly $2,000 per ounce. Typically, high prices encourage aggressive exploration. But surprisingly, after 2010–11, major discoveries declined sharply. In many years, only one or two significant discoveries were made. Even more striking — in 2023, 2024, and 2025, there have been zero major discoveries of 2+ million ounces.

Gold is simply not being found at scale anymore.

A Structural Constraint on Future Supply

Mining is not instant. A discovery today can take 5–10 years before the mine becomes operational and contributes to market supply. If discoveries have slowed dramatically over the past decade, the impact on production will be felt with a lag. Existing mines cannot produce indefinitely. Without new discoveries, future output will eventually decline.

Unlike Oil, There’s No Continuous Replacement

In the oil industry, new reserves are regularly discovered and developed. Gold is not following that pattern. If major discoveries are no longer happening, the industry may be heading toward a structural slowdown in supply, not just a temporary cyclical dip.

Has the Scarcity Premium Been Priced In?

Many investors believe gold, copper, and aluminum have already risen significantly. But the key question is this:
Has the market fully priced in the possibility of long-term supply scarcity? If supply constraints become structural rather than cyclical, commodity prices could move in a way that deviates from traditional cycles.

A Potentially Strong Commodity Cycle

This issue may not be limited to gold alone. If other metals also face supply-side challenges, we could see a powerful, broad-based commodity cycle. What appears expensive today might only be the early phase of a longer structural move. If the supply slowdown thesis plays out, staying aligned with the trend could be critical. Markets often discount scarcity late — not early.