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It is hard to believe that at the start of this month, anybody imagined that in 17 days we would be where we are today. It is good to see that things are resolving and normal markets may be coming back on track.

Nifty on the Daily Chart

Regarding the Nifty daily chart, while there is nothing over the top exciting, at least a very nice bounce has happened. The bounce has occurred in such a way that it does not seem like a dead cat bounce; it is a meaningful move because the number of days that have gone into this bounce is almost two weeks. This is a classical V-shape recovery of the market, totaling 1.2%.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

This week we have seen the weekly candle move above the two-week candle, which is also a reassuring sign. Furthermore, more than 60% of the fall since the start of the Iran war has been recovered. Of course, there is now also news that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open at least till the ceasefire deadline. It is most likely than not, as we have been guessing, that the war is tapering down gradually and it is unlikely that the war situation will again escalate. It does not look like that on the weekly front, as we are still about 2,000 points away from the top. I think some part of that will get made up in the next week.

S&P 500 Overview

The biggest move that is happening is in the S&P 500, with a 4.5% move. That gives a lot of confidence to the rest of the markets as well. Although we are not in the same boat as the US markets, the US market leads significant other markets most of the time. So, a strong US market gives a signal to other markets.

GOLD Overview

Also, gold is up 1.39% this week, so it is gradually inching up. It is not firing very hard, but you can see that the long-term trend is still very, very positive. So I won’t be surprised if in the next month or two, or maybe three months, we will challenge the previous high. That is certainly possible.

Dollar Index Overview

The dollar index is also down this week, and for the last two weeks, it has been gradually slipping away. The major move will start to come if it starts to slip below 96 to 96.5 levels. That is when perhaps some money will start moving towards emerging markets in more earnest.

Global Indices Overview

NASDAQ and KOSPI remain the top markets for this week in dollar terms. All markets are comparable in dollar terms on this chart. Germany is at 4.5%, Russell 2000 at 5.6%, and the S&P 500 is also at 4.5%. These were the top markets for this week. Nifty is at 1.1% and Nifty 500 is at 2.2%, still lagging other markets by a large margin.

Global Momentum

Among global indices, momentum-wise KOSPI is at the top followed by Brazil and NASDAQ, and the bottom is still Nifty. The next two are Nifty 500, Hang Seng, and CAC 40. So consistently we have been at the bottom in terms of dollar-based returns. That is a chicken-neck problem; dollar returns are weakest and hence foreign money is not interested. As soon as foreign money or dollar returns start to look up, it will feed itself. That is how the entire market works. Because most indices, specifically MSCI-based indices, are market-cap-based, if the market cap is lower, you get lower allocation, and as the market cap starts to become higher, you get higher allocation.

Benchmark Indices Overview

Benchmark indices were all in green this week, with small caps running 4.3%, Nifty Next 50 at 3.89%, and mid-caps at 3.5%. So there were good gains in the broader market, but the frontline market is still slow at 1.2% on Nifty and 2.34% on 500.

Sectoral Overview

Within the sectors, the capital market sector is moving very rapidly at 6.8% this week, and if I see the monthly performance, it is 15.6% just this one month. So, capital market segments moving ahead gives a very good indication that the markets are inherently all right. They are just waiting out this period and perhaps now they will start to go up. There is complete pessimism in the market, and the FOMO of having missed this last 10 days is now starting to build up.

A lot of the fundamental guys are saying there is no earnings for the next so many years and so on, so that story is not convincing right now. But the market is running away, so at some point, maybe a couple of weeks later if this run continues, people will get real FOMO about the markets knowing that the fundamentals are not supportive but the market is running away. So, following trends puts you into that position of at least having the leadership in your portfolios.

Capital market segments, defense, energy, metals, real estate, and PSEs were some of the sectors that did really well. Autos are lagging behind this week at minus 0.8%, PSU banks are also soft, private banks are also soft, and financial services are also not performing. So, the focus here right now is energy, defense, and capital markets, though not in that specific order.

On the sectoral momentum, we have metals, capital market, and defense as the top three along with energy as the fourth, and you will find most of the setups coming from these four sectors. At the bottom, you have the services sector, tourism, FMCG, and private banks; these are not really getting through.

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Rebalance Update