Over the last 55 years, gold has shown a pattern of strong moves after crossing previous highs. Every time gold has broken its old levels, it has moved up by three to five times from the breakout point. In the early 1970s, gold moved from around $46 to $180, a nearly 4x rise. After resting for a few years, gold again rose sharply from $180 to over $800 in the late 1970s. Each breakout has led to massive gains, proving gold’s strong trend over the decades.
Big Rallies and Long Bear Markets in Gold
After the big move to $800, gold faced a long bear market because central banks like Bank of England and Canada started selling gold. This bearish phase lasted for many years. The next strong move came when gold broke $700–$800 levels in 2007 and climbed to nearly $1,950 by 2011. Again, this was close to a 3x move. Another bear market followed, lasting for almost six to seven years. Gold crossed the $2,000 mark only in 2023 after this long correction phase.
Current Gold Move and the $6,000 Possibility
Today, gold has moved about 75% from its last breakout. If we follow the past trends, gold usually does not stop before at least a 3x move. If history repeats, a 3x move from around $2,000 would mean gold could reach $6,000. Some previous moves even went to 5x levels. So the idea that gold could touch $6,000 in the next few years is not impossible, based on past behavior and current economic trends.
The Big Transition in the Global System
The world is shifting from a US dollar-dominated system to a more multipolar world. This change could take one or two decades to fully play out. During such times of global shifts, assets like gold tend to perform better. Historically, gold has returned around 9–10% annually in US dollar terms. If gold even delivers a slightly higher CAGR of 15% during this decade, it could easily reach between $6,000 and $8,000 by 2030.
The Role of INR in Gold Returns for Indian Investors
One important factor for Indian investors is how the Indian Rupee (INR) behaves against the US Dollar (USD). If the INR weakens sharply, gold prices in INR could shoot up even more. If INR strengthens a little every year, then gold returns might stay more controlled, around 12% CAGR. Otherwise, gold returns in INR could be much higher, giving investors an extra boost in gains.
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