Gold’s Seasonal Trends: A 50-Year Pattern
A fascinating chart shared by the Gold Advisor Account highlights the seasonality in gold prices over the last 50 years. The data reveals a clear trend: gold’s price movement remains relatively subdued in the first seven months of the year, with average gains of just 1% to 2% from January to July. However, the real action begins in the second half of the year, where gold prices tend to gain between 9% and 12%, peaking towards December.
Why Does Gold Perform Better in the Second Half?
This seasonal pattern can be attributed to strong demand cycles:
Indian Wedding & Festival Season – India, one of the largest gold consumers, sees heavy buying in the second half of the year, leading up to Diwali and wedding seasons.
Chinese New Year Demand – Chinese buyers tend to accumulate gold towards the end of the year in preparation for Chinese New Year celebrations, which occur in January-February.
Western Holiday & Investment Cycles – Gold often sees increased investor demand towards year-end as funds and institutions rebalance portfolios and hedge for the next financial cycle.
Will 2025 Follow This Pattern?
While historical trends suggest a stronger gold performance in the second half, 2025 may not be an average year. Gold has already delivered explosive gains of nearly 50% in the last year, so it remains to be seen whether it will consolidate in the first half before resuming its uptrend.
Key Takeaway
Gold’s seasonality is a well-documented phenomenon, and understanding these trends can help investors time their allocations better. If history repeats itself, the second half of 2025 could see even higher gold prices, possibly pushing above ₹90,000 per 10g in India.
What do you think? Will gold continue its run, or will this year be different? Let me know your thoughts!
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