Changing Role of Central Bank Reserves
A very important global change is happening in the way central banks manage their reserves. Traditionally, central banks hold different assets like US Treasuries, gold, and foreign currencies. For many years, US Treasuries enjoyed a strong position as a major part of these reserves. However, the trend is now shifting in a big way, and gold has started to play a much bigger role. (see the image below)
Decline of US Treasury Holdings
If we look back over the last two decades, US Treasuries made up around 30% of central bank reserves on average. But since 2015–16, this share has been falling steadily. The once strong dominance of Treasuries is clearly losing ground. This fall marks an important shift in how countries are thinking about security and stability in their reserves.
Rise of Gold Holdings
At the same time that Treasuries began to fall, gold holdings by central banks started to rise. Around 2015, gold made up only about 12% of reserves. Since then, it has been climbing year after year and today stands close to 28–30%. This is the first time since 1995 that central banks are holding more gold than US Treasuries, making it a historic moment.
Lessons from the 1970s
History also shows us how far this trend can go. In the 1970s, central banks held more than 75% of their reserves in gold. While it is not certain whether that level will be reached again, even a rise towards 40% would push gold into a very different level of demand. This would also mean a sharp drop in the importance of the US dollar across the world.
Impact on Global Markets
As gold gains importance, the dollar index is expected to weaken from its current levels. This shift could open the doors for more fund flows into emerging markets and into gold itself. It signals a major rebalancing of the global financial system, where the old dominance of US Treasuries is slowly being replaced by the strength of gold.
A Change Happening Before Our Eyes
This change is not a distant future scenario. It is happening right now and shaping the way global reserves are managed. Central banks are clearly preparing for a world where gold plays a much larger role than before, and this move will have lasting effects on currencies, markets, and investment flows in the years ahead.
