A Look at Global Market Trends
Over the last 15 years, global stock markets have moved in very different ways. On one side, the US market has shown strong and steady growth. On the other side, emerging markets have struggled to match this pace. When we compare both over a long period, a clear performance gap appears. (see the image below)
In simple words, the US has taken a big lead in the last decade and a half.
Understanding Emerging Markets Performance
Emerging markets are a mix of developing countries, and their growth depends on many factors. Countries like China, Brazil, and Russia hold major weight in this category. But during the last several years, their overall performance has not been very strong. India, however, has shown better movement since 2012. Even with India’s positive trend, emerging markets as a group have still remained behind.
The US Market Advantage
Since 2011-12, the US market has clearly outperformed emerging markets. The data shows that the US continued to rise even during periods when emerging markets did not show much strength. This long phase of outperformance has created a wide gap. Many investors now see the US as a stable and reliable option, and this trust has further supported its growth.
Long-Term Market Cycles
A ratio chart that compares emerging markets to the US market shows a repeating pattern. When the chart falls, the US performs better. When it rises, emerging markets lead. History shows that emerging markets have taken the lead in the 1970s, the late 1980s, and again from 2002 to 2008. These cycles take time to form, and they often last for years. Now, the chart has reached a level where major turns have happened before.
A Possible Shift Ahead
There is a strong possibility that the next big move may favour emerging markets. If the cycle repeats, the coming five to ten years may bring a rise in these markets. At the same time, the US market may enter a slow or sideways phase. While nothing can be certain, the data suggests that the early signs of change are already visible.
Final Thoughts
The big question now is simple: Is the time for emerging markets already here, or is it just around the corner? With long-term cycles pointing toward a potential turn, many are watching closely. The next few years may decide whether emerging markets finally close the gap and begin a new phase of growth. Only time will show what lies ahead, but the opportunity looks interesting.
