For the past 90 years, the US stock market has shown varying reactions during the first 100 days of a new president taking office. These early days often set the tone for how investors feel about the direction of the economy. In some cases, markets have surged with optimism. In others, they have fallen, reflecting confusion or disappointment with new policies. A recent look at this data reveals that one of the worst performances in this period came under Donald Trump’s return to office, where the market fell 8% in the first 100 days.
Some Presidents Saw Strong Early Gains
Not all new leaders have had a weak start. Franklin Roosevelt’s first 100 days saw a remarkable 78% rise in the stock market, as the country recovered from the Great Depression. More recently, Joe Biden’s term began with an 11% gain in the same period. While it’s not always accurate to link market moves directly to presidential actions, these patterns do reflect a general sense of optimism or fear that investors feel early on.
Markets Are Struggling to Read Trump’s Policies
In Donald Trump’s case, the market’s early drop shows that investors are uncertain about the direction of his policies. His focus on bringing jobs and manufacturing back to the US sounds strong in theory, but markets are unsure if it’s practically possible. Decades of outsourcing, low interest rates, and a dependence on global trade are not easy to reverse quickly. This confusion has led to negative early sentiment.
Free Benefits and Declining Work Ethic
There’s also a larger issue at play—both in the US and increasingly in countries like India. Governments have built systems that reward citizens with free subsidies, direct cash transfers, and benefits. While well-intentioned, these policies are starting to reduce people’s motivation to work. The idea of working hard for income is being replaced with a mindset that expects free support. This could lead to long-term problems, especially in countries that already face employment challenges.
The Global Shift Towards Universal Basic Income
With fewer people willing to work, and more depending on government aid, the world could move toward a system of Universal Basic Income—where governments give a fixed amount of money to everyone. But this system comes with its own risks. More money printing may raise inflation and hurt currency value over time. If the money supply keeps expanding, it could damage economic stability rather than strengthen it.
What Comes Next?
The market has given a weak scorecard so far, but things can still change. If policy shifts are made that promote real productivity and economic growth, investor sentiment can recover. The next 100 days will be crucial in seeing whether this trend continues or takes a new turn.
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