No Perfect Timing – The Best Time to Invest is Always Now
A superb analysis from Peter Mallouk portrays S&P 500’s annualized forward total returns from starting from each month over nearly 100 years to explore the concept of seasonality in investing. Many investors ask: When is the best month to start investing? Should I wait for March, December, or some specific period?
No Seasonality in Long-Term Returns
The data shows that over rolling periods of 1, 5, 10, 20, and 30 years, there is virtually no significant difference in returns based on which month you started investing. The variations are minimal—within 100 basis points—with the highest around 12.3% and the lowest at 11.2%.
Timing Doesn’t Matter, Time in the Market Does
Even if you started investing in one of the worst market years, your long-term annualized returns would still align with any other period. This proves that waiting for the perfect entry point is futile. Instead of trying to time the market, the focus should be on staying invested for the long run.
Start Today – The Right Moment is Always Now
Many new investors hesitate, waiting for the “perfect time” to start. But as the saying goes, “The best time to start was yesterday; the second-best time is today.” Instead of delaying, start investing in a self-correcting vehicle like an index fund, mutual fund, or momentum-based portfolio that adapts over time.
WeekendInvesting launches – Portfolio Momentum Report
Momentum Score: See what percentage of your portfolio is in high vs. low momentum stocks, giving you a snapshot of its performance and health.
Weightage Skew: Discover if certain stocks are dominating your portfolio, affecting its performance and risk balance.
Why it matters
Weak momentum stocks can limit your gains, while high momentum stocks improve capital allocation, enhancing your chances of superior performance.
