The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
We’ve ended the month of July on a disappointing note. After four consecutive positive months, July turned negative for Indian markets. The 25% tariff announcement from the U.S. continues to weigh on sentiment. While the market initially shrugged it off and rallied the day of the announcement, the very next day it came to terms with the implications and gave up gains. Although many see the U.S. move as a negotiation tactic to ultimately bring tariffs down from the initially declared level, India’s own internal challenges—especially on the growth front—are adding to the market’s worries.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
The lack of domestic triggers combined with persistent foreign institutional selling has led to five straight weeks of downward movement. Typically, such consistent declines over five to six weeks lead to oversold conditions and a reversal. However, this time the moves have been gradual rather than sharp, making it harder to gauge where support might emerge. The 24,400 zone remains a crucial level to watch—if the market holds here, a bounce is possible. If not, there are several lower gaps on the charts waiting to be tested.
S&P 500 Overview
S&P 500 also moved lower this week, forming a bearish engulfing candle. A revision in U.S. employment data for the past two months and weaker-than-expected numbers for the current month have dramatically shifted expectations around interest rates. Until recently, the market saw almost no chance of a rate cut in September—but now, the probability has jumped to 80%. If U.S. rates do come down—perhaps even twice this year—it could trigger a flow of capital into emerging markets like India, which would provide support to equities.
GOLD Overview
Gold quickly responded to these developments, rising 2% intraday and ending the week up 1.68%, closing just shy of ₹10,000 per gram. If the interest rate cut cycle has truly begun, gold is likely to move even higher and potentially break out beyond its previous all-time highs.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index also showed volatility this week. From a high near 100, it collapsed back down to earlier levels after the employment data shook expectations. Rate cuts typically weaken the dollar, which in turn benefits gold and emerging markets.
Benchmark Indices Overview
On the index front, the Nifty declined by 1.09% this week. The Nifty Next 50 and Nifty 500 were both down 1.4%, while midcaps and smallcaps fell 2% and 2.9% respectively. The one-year view looks similarly subdued: Nifty 50 is down 1.7%, midcaps 2.8%, Nifty 500 3.5%, smallcaps 5.4%, and Nifty Next 50 a steep 10.9%. The underperformance of the Nifty Next 50 is particularly striking. Yet, over a five-year horizon, all indices are showing exceptional returns. Smallcaps have delivered a stellar 31% CAGR, while three-year returns also look robust across the board. This suggests that while short-term pain persists, long-term returns remain well above historical averages—and may eventually revert toward the mean.
Sectoral Overview
In the sectoral breakdown, real estate was hit hardest this week with a 5.7% decline, followed by defense (–4.8%), metals (–3.4%), PSU banks (–3.3%), and capital markets (–3.3%). These sectors had performed strongly over the last few years, so the pullback here is notable. FMCG, however, stood out with a 3% gain, driven by encouraging results from Hindustan Unilever, which hinted at a revival in rural and volume growth. Most other sectors were in the red—IT was down 2.7% and has now declined nearly 15% over the past year. Energy stocks, public sector enterprises, and oil & gas have all struggled too. On the other hand, financial services, banks, and capital markets have held up relatively well over the last year, with capital markets up an impressive 43%.
Looking at momentum across sectors, financial services, MNCs, banks, and Indian consumption themes continue to lead. Capital markets and defense have lost their edge in the short term. Meanwhile, real estate, IT, and PSU stocks remain in the bottom ranks. FMCG and energy are now showing early signs of momentum, potentially setting up for stronger performance ahead.
Introducing Mi Allcap GOLD
We’re excited to announce the launch of Mi AllCap GOLD, a new core investment strategy from the House of WeekendInvesting.
This strategy is designed for investors who want broad equity exposure with a built-in hedge. It combines:
25% Large Caps – for stability
25% Mid Caps – for growth
25% Small Caps – for alpha
25% Gold ETFs – as a permanent hedge
Mi AllCap GOLD follows a rules-based, momentum-driven approach to select the strongest stocks in each segment. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to ensure it stays aligned with market leadership — with no human discretion involved.
Why Mi AllCap GOLD?
All-in-one exposure to all equity tiers + gold
Rebalance Frequency : Monthly
Momentum Style : Rotational
Whether you’re just starting your wealth journey or looking to anchor your core portfolio, Mi AllCap GOLD offers a powerful blend of momentum, diversification, and downside protection.
Don’t just diversify — balance wisely.
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
