The Good Bad and Ugly weekly review : 02 Jan 2026

January 3, 2026 8 min read

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Nifty on the Daily Chart

The year has begun on a strong and encouraging note, with markets closing at a new all-time high right in the opening week. Several sectors are now displaying healthy price structures, suggesting that participation is broadening beyond just a few index heavyweights. While FII selling has continued, the intensity has clearly reduced, which itself is a positive signal. At the same time, a larger global narrative is starting to take shape — one where markets are increasingly accepting that interest rates eventually have to move lower. That shift in expectation is important, because it lays the groundwork for renewed flows into emerging markets, potentially becoming a meaningful theme as we move through 2026.

Precious metals like gold and silver paused this week, consolidating after their recent sharp moves. This pause does not change the larger trend but reflects normal digestion after strong rallies. The most prominent domestic development, however, came from the tobacco space, where government action on higher excise duties and increased GST triggered sharp reactions. The announcement caused immediate pressure on major tobacco stocks and became the single biggest talking point of the week, reminding investors how swiftly policy risk can play out in specific sectors even when the broader market is strong.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

From a technical perspective, the daily Nifty chart remained constructive. The index saw three advancing sessions and two declining ones, ultimately closing at 26,328, up 1.1% for the week. On the weekly chart, the structure looks even more compelling. Nifty had broken out decisively in late October, returned to retest the breakout zone, and has now resumed its upward trajectory. Closing the week at the highest point on the chart reinforces the view that the breakout remains valid and that the market is comfortably absorbing supply at higher levels.

S&P 500 Overview

In global markets, the S&P 500 continues to hover near its highs, once again defying widespread pessimism around U.S. valuations and macro risks. Despite constant chatter about expensive multiples and slowing growth, price action tells a different story — markets remain resilient. Even with a modest weekly decline of around 1%, the broader structure in U.S. equities remains intact, underscoring how liquidity and positioning continue to overpower bearish narratives.

GOLD Overview

Gold, on the other hand, saw a sharp pullback of nearly 4% this week, effectively retracing the entire rally from the previous week. While this may appear dramatic in isolation, it fits well within gold’s recent behavior. Over the past year, gold has rarely corrected for more than two to three consecutive weeks. This kind of pullback is more indicative of healthy consolidation rather than trend reversal. If history is any guide, such pauses often set the stage for the next leg higher rather than signaling exhaustion.

Dollar Index Overview

Dollar Index remained largely stable, rising marginally by about 0.39%. While it has not shown meaningful weakness yet, it is also not exerting aggressive pressure on risk assets. This neutral behavior keeps the macro backdrop relatively balanced for now.

Global Indices Overview

Looking at global indices in dollar terms, which provides a clean apples-to-apples comparison, Hang Seng emerged as the top performer, followed closely by Brazil. Indian markets also held their ground well, with Nifty 50 up 1.2% and CNX 500 up 1.4%, outperforming several other emerging markets. In contrast, Japan, Australia, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 all posted declines, reflecting the uneven nature of global participation this week.

Global Momentum

Canada sits at the top, followed by Brazil, the UK, and European indices — a surprising lineup by conventional expectations. Importantly, Nifty has continued to climb the rankings, moving out of the bottom slot where it had previously been stuck. Meanwhile, U.S. indices have slipped lower in the momentum table, highlighting how leadership is rotating rather than remaining static.

Benchmark Indices Overview

Domestically, the benchmark index performance was uniformly strong. Nifty gained 1.1%, Nifty Next 50 rose 2.1%, midcaps added 1.7%, small caps gained 1.09%, and the CNX 500 advanced 1.34%. This kind of synchronized movement across market caps is a sign of improving internal health, something that sustainable rallies tend to thrive on.

Sectoral Overview

FMCG was the lone laggard, down 3.7%, largely due to the impact of tobacco stocks. IT also slipped modestly. In contrast, most other sectors delivered strong gains. Metals surged 5.7%, PSU banks rose 5%, commodities gained 4.3%, autos climbed 3.8%, and public sector enterprise stocks also advanced meaningfully. It was a broad-based rally across cyclical and value-oriented sectors.

Sectoral momentum map clearly illustrates why rule-based rotation matters. Metals, PSU banks, commodities, and autos now dominate the top rankings, while defense, media, tourism, and FMCG sit at the bottom. Notably, defense — which ranked strongly on longer-term metrics — has lost momentum sharply in the short term. Meanwhile, public sector enterprises, previously laggards, have surged up the rankings. This constant reshuffling of leadership is exactly why momentum-driven, automatic sector selection helps portfolios stay aligned with strength rather than anchored to outdated narratives.

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Rebalance Update

We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you

Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.

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    The Good Bad and Ugly weekly review : 02 Jan 2026