The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
This was a decisive week where relations with the US have clearly shifted. It is unlikely that ties will return to what they were before. The week was dominated by strong narratives from both sides. The US has virtually demanded that India give up any trade with Russia, step away from the BRICS alliance, and lend full support to the US economy. Such demands make it very difficult to find a solution after so much has already been said on both sides, although one can never rule out surprises in geopolitics.
Markets, however, seem to have largely discounted this factor. The 50% tariff is now seen as part of the baseline, and attention is turning to October 14 when the US government’s appeal in its Supreme Court will be heard. Whether that passes or not will be a key moment, as will any backup plans the US administration may roll out to impose additional tariffs.
Adding to the uncertainty, there were also rumors—though not yet confirmed—that tariffs on Indian IT services could be considered. Such a move would be highly disruptive, especially for India’s export-heavy IT sector. Beyond tariffs, concerns are also growing about the US economy itself. Recent jobs data has been poor, with negative job growth and rising unemployment. Historically, every time US unemployment reaches current levels, it has signaled a recession. That possibility poses risks to global markets, including India. Against this backdrop of multiple headwinds, only a dramatic fall in the dollar index might provide tailwinds for emerging markets.
Despite all these challenges, it’s worth remembering that markets can always surprise. Just as after COVID, when no one expected such a swift rally, unexpected turns remain possible. The lesson is clear: asset allocation remains crucial. Even if markets are not delivering immediate returns, staying invested and diversified is the only way to be prepared for sudden shifts.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
On the Nifty charts, the index looks stable. It digested the GST news without much net movement, as gains from a month ago were offset by the current negativity. The Nifty remains in a range-bound situation, slightly below the 100-day moving average but not in a deeply negative zone. For the week, Nifty gained 1.29%, taking support near the 24,300 level.
S&P 500 Overview
S&P 500 closed at yet another all-time high despite recession worries and talk of a collapsing dollar.
GOLD Overview
Gold surged 4% this week, hitting ₹1,08,000 per gram, continuing its long rally of plateaus and leaps higher.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, however, has yet to break down in a way that would decisively support emerging markets.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In benchmark indices, small caps led with a 2.4% gain, followed by the Nifty Next 50 at 2% and midcaps at 2%. On a one-year view, though, all remain negative, with Nifty Next 50 down the most at -10.5%. Over three and five years, however, returns remain very healthy, underscoring the importance of long-term perspective.
Sectoral Overview
This week we saw a strong rally across multiple sectors with metals rising 5.8% and autos gaining 5.5% on the back of GST-related news. Capital markets also staged a comeback, possibly helped by developments around the weekly expiry issue, suggesting that the outcome may not be as negative as initially feared. Other notable gainers included tourism up 2.1%, commodities up 2.5%, consumption up 2.6%, and public sector enterprises up 2.2%. Overall, the market breadth was positive with hardly any sectors losing ground, the only exception being IT, which slipped on concerns of a potential US backlash.
The sectoral momentum trends show that autos continue to hold the top spot, followed closely by consumption, metals, and MNCs, which together make up the leading bracket. Capital markets, which had slipped earlier, are now making a strong comeback, regaining momentum quickly. Energy and public sector enterprises are also showing renewed strength after a period of weakness. On the other hand, pharma and FMCG, which had been performing well over the past month and three months, have dropped sharply in the last week, highlighting short-term weakness despite their earlier gains. Overall, the data reflects how momentum can shift significantly between weekly and monthly views, with sectors like capital markets bouncing back strongly while others like pharma and FMCG falter in the short term.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We have been sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.
Why this change?
Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:
• Strategy updates & rebalances
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Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
