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Nifty on the Daily Chart

It has been a gigantic week where India and the US have signed on a tariff deal. The details of that deal came out on Saturday, which means markets are likely to react on Monday. From a local perspective, it feels like perhaps we have already seen the worst for now. However, any large global event can still derail markets quickly. But apart from that risk, there is nothing more to be pessimistic about on the India front at this moment.

Looking at the Nifty daily chart, there was a big gap up on the day the deal was announced, followed by sideways movement after that. Hopefully next week we will be higher than current levels, but nevertheless it has been a good week.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

Nifty is up 3.5% this week. We exactly hit resistance at the previous high, and once we cross that level, you could see markets move up more rapidly. The weekly candle is not very bullish yet, but it is setting up for what could become a major breakout.

S&P 500 Overview

The S&P 500 is remarkably down only 0.1% despite all the tech crashes and the negative narrative going around. The S&P continues to be an amazing story of resilience. Right now, the market has not moved much despite strong headwinds.

GOLD Overview

Gold is flat for the week, which is also quite remarkable. It had collapsed substantially from its recent high near 1,70,000 per 10 grams, and now it is sitting around 1,53,000.

This week we saw paper prices diverge from physical prices. As markets on exchanges like MCX and Comex collapsed, the physical market did not fall on a one-to-one basis beyond a certain point. The physical market froze and did not offer those lower prices. This is a new kind of spread that is getting created, where physical gold may start to trade at a different price compared to paper gold. In the paper market, it is easy to sell or buy units without physical backing. But the physical market has to deal with logistics, supply, and actual movement of metal. No physical trade can happen at breakneck speed like paper trading. Just yesterday, silver moved up and down more than 20%, which shows how wild paper price movements can be.

Dollar Index Overview

The dollar index is stabilizing and is up about half a percent. This is one of the reasons why gold and silver have fallen in global indices. When the dollar strengthens, precious metals usually face pressure.

Global Indices Overview

There is a very unique chart in dollar terms comparing all major indices of the world. You can see that India has done the best this week. On a yearly basis, India is still among the weakest performers, but this week India is the top performer and hopefully will build on this momentum.

The Dow has done well. The Russell 2000 has done well. The worst hit market was South Korea, down 4.8%. Hang Seng in China is down 3.1%. Australia is down 2.3%. Nasdaq is also down 1.8%.

Global Momentum

So there is good momentum now in the India market. Brazil is ruling the top of the list, followed by South Korea which is now dropping. Canada and the UK are also near the top. Nifty 500 is still at the bottom in longer-term rankings. But this week, India has taken the number one or number two position. Over time, we hope to move up the global rankings. Nasdaq and Hang Seng are also at the bottom of the table currently.

Benchmark Indices Overview

Looking at broader indices, mid-caps gained 2% this week. Nifty Next 50 gained 1.8%. Nifty and Nifty 500 gained about 1.5%. Small caps were trailing with a 0.64% gain.

Sectoral Overview

In the sector overview, real estate is coming back strongly with about a 5.3% gain this week. Oil and gas also did well. Infrastructure performed well after the budget. Energy stocks were propped up. Tourism stocks were doing well. Defense stocks were beaten down, falling between 5.3% and 6.4%.

One of the biggest stories of the week is that AI is challenging the software industry in terms of sectoral momentum. Metals and commodities are still at the top, followed by Central PSUs and PSU banks. However, PSU banks and metals are facing some short-term headwinds. Media, FMCG, and real estate are at the bottom of the pack, although notably real estate has done well in the short term. Infrastructure, energy, and oil and gas sectors are clearly coming up.

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Rebalance Update