The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
So many things happened this week. The first major development was a shift in focus for President Trump—from targeting other countries to taking on individuals. A notable fallout occurred between him and Elon Musk, and that spat began dominating the media narrative, overtaking the tariff war story. Interestingly, the global markets seem to be gradually adjusting to the volatility of Trump’s statements, no longer reacting sharply to every tweet or comment. This change is slowly getting priced in as the market matures around such political noise.
The second and perhaps more impactful event was the surprise 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This brings the total rate cut to 100 basis points in recent meetings, double what the market expected this time. This move indicates two things: first, that inflation appears to be well under control, giving the RBI confidence to ease further; and second, a subtle hint that the economic data may not be as strong as it seems on the surface, prompting the RBI to offer more stimulus. Whether you see this as a defensive or opportunistic move depends on your lens. Personally, I see this as a proactive step to push growth, especially now that the geopolitical backdrop is stabilizing. The markets, of course, love rate cuts—especially unexpected ones. That’s why we saw rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, NBFCs, and banks rally strongly following the announcement.
Looking at the charts, Nifty was up 1% this week. For the past month, it has remained range-bound within a tight 400-point band and now sits near the top of that range. A breakout could trigger a dash to new all-time highs, with 25,000 already in sight.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
On the weekly chart, the last two candles were “inside candles”—indicating consolidation within the range formed by the big up-move in the second week of May. We are now at a key breakout level, and if upward momentum continues next week, a challenge to the previous all-time high could be underway. Structurally, this even resembles an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, but it’s too early to confirm that scenario.
S&P 500 Overview
The S&P 500 had a great week too, rising 1.5% and hitting the 6,000 mark again. It’s remarkable, considering the economic noise coming from the U.S.—fears of recession, unaffordable interest rates, and political upheaval. Yet the market keeps climbing, driven by liquidity expectations. Markets often ignore short-term earnings pressure if they sense future liquidity—and that appears to be what’s happening now.
GOLD Overview
Gold was up 0.93% this week. It briefly approached ₹10,000 per gram but couldn’t sustain the momentum. On the dollar basis, it ended around $2,320. Despite not breaking out, gold is undergoing a classic sideways consolidation, similar to previous pauses during its long-term uptrend. Once this phase ends, another leg higher seems probable.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index dropped slightly by 0.24% this week but has otherwise been consolidating for several weeks. Since the dollar and gold generally move inversely, any sharp decline in the dollar index would likely support rallies in both gold and emerging markets. For now, the dollar is in a holding pattern—but any decisive move down could bring fresh flows into risk assets.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In the benchmark indices overview, all major indices logged gains: Small caps led with +2.69%, followed by midcaps at +2.69%, Nifty Next 50 at +1.8%, Nifty 500 at +1.59%, and Nifty 50 at +1%.
Sectoral Overview
The sectoral action this week was dominated by two big movers—Real Estate (up 9.5%) and Capital Markets (up 8.9%). In the past one month, Real Estate is up 21%, PSU Banks 13.9%, Media 13%, Defense 27%, and Capital Markets an impressive 27.9%. These sectors have clearly stood out and are showing strong relative momentum.
Looking at sectoral momentum rankings across timeframes, Capital Markets lead the pack, followed by Defense, Banking, Real Estate, Financial Services, PSU Banks, and Tourism. On the flip side, FMCG is at the absolute bottom, joined by Energy, Pharma, Commodities, and Autos. Interestingly, Metals are trying to stage a comeback, as are Tourism and PSU Banks. Real Estate has been the top gainer over the short term, while Private Banks are ceding ground to PSU Banks in recent sessions. These subtle sectoral shifts reflect how market leadership is evolving beneath the surface.
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
