The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
It was a tumultuous week in the markets, with the tariff drama seemingly peaking as the U.S. announced a 50% reciprocal tariff on India. This is no longer just a tactical trade negotiation—it has far-reaching implications for the future relationship between two of the world’s largest economies. India, projected to be the third-largest economy by 2030, and the U.S., the current number one, will inevitably need to find ways to cooperate if global growth is to continue.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
For now, India appears to be holding its ground, unwilling to give in entirely, though domestic political compulsions seem to be keeping its markets more closed than some would like. While this could be seen as a defensive stance, it may also serve as a hard push for the government to rethink how to kick-start the next phase of economic growth. With that as the backdrop, let’s look at what unfolded in the markets this week.
Nifty ended the week down 0.82%, closing at 24,360—below the important 24,400 support zone. This breakdown also took it under the 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average not far below, near the bottom of a gap from early May. If market sentiment takes another hit, that gap could be filled quickly. Friday’s last two hours felt like a capitulation, with weaker hands exiting, which could mean the immediate downside pressure may pause. Still, the gap remains a technical risk if the U.S.–India standoff escalates further.
On the weekly chart, the Nifty has now logged six straight weeks of declines—a rare occurrence not seen since the COVID crash. Such a prolonged drop has left the market extremely oversold, suggesting a bounce is increasingly likely, at least in the short term.
S&P 500 Overview
Meanwhile, U.S. markets are telling a completely different story. The S&P 500 surged 2.43% for the week, closing virtually at all-time highs of 6,389. Strength in U.S. equities stands in sharp contrast to the Indian market’s recent weakness, reflecting a divergence in momentum between the two.
GOLD Overview
Gold also gained 1.33% this week, amid talk of potential tariffs on one-kilogram gold bars entering the U.S. from Switzerland. Interestingly, Switzerland is home to nearly 70% of the world’s gold refineries, and any restriction on imports into the U.S. could create delivery issues for COMEX futures. Since U.S. gold futures pricing is largely derived from spot prices set in London, any disruption in the physical gold supply chain could cause a pricing disconnect. Short sellers on COMEX appeared nervous on Friday following this news, though some reports suggest the tariff may be reversed soon. If it is not, the impact on U.S. gold price discovery could be significant.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, on the other hand, has remained sideways for the last four weeks. A decisive breakdown could trigger fresh inflows into emerging markets and spark a faster rise in Indian equities and rupee-denominated gold.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Looking at the benchmark indices, the Nifty fell 0.8% for the week, while the small-cap index was hit harder, losing 1.9%. Other indices fell somewhere in between.
Sectoral Overview
On the sectoral front, only PSU banks managed a respectable gain of 1.6%, followed by modest gains in metals (0.5%) and media (1.1%). Commodities, autos, and capital markets also managed to hold their ground. On the losing side, pharma declined sharply amid U.S. tariff talk, real estate dropped 2.5%, MNCs fell 1.9%, and FMCG slipped 2.3%. The weakness in FMCG is particularly notable, as it is traditionally considered a defensive play in volatile markets. Tourism stocks and several banking names also weakened, contributing to a generally lackluster market tone.
From a sectoral momentum standpoint, capital markets remain at the top of the rankings despite recent declines, followed by PSU banks, metals, and defense. At the bottom of the table, IT continues to underperform, joined by real estate, oil & gas, energy, and FMCG. Short-term trading opportunities may exist in the stronger momentum areas such as PSU banks, metals, and select capital market plays.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
From next week onwards (starting 15th of Aug 2025), we’ll be sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements on our official WhatsApp Channel
Why this change?
Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:
• Strategy updates & rebalances
• Exclusive announcements & offers
• Important reminders – all in one place
Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels
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We’re excited to announce the launch of Mi AllCap GOLD, a new core investment strategy from the House of WeekendInvesting.
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
