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There is finally an interval in the ongoing war, with ceasefire negotiations scheduled to begin on Saturday. The market has rallied significantly over the last week in anticipation of a positive resolution. While a failure in these negotiations could lead to a minor slump, there is a strong gut feeling that the market bottom has already been established. However, it is important to note that despite this recent bounce, long-term trends currently remain down.
Nifty on the Daily Chart
This week saw the Nifty rise by 5.89%, marking one of its strongest weekly performances in five years. A significant “gap up” was created following the ceasefire announcement, and the market remained firm without weakening in the following days. From an Indian perspective, the primary concern is the flow of oil. While there is talk of a $1 per barrel oil toll tax, the current price levels near $9,500 are manageable as long as the supply remains uninterrupted.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
While the Middle East conflict is difficult to resolve, it does not impact the local market directly if oil continues to flow. The weekly candle is exceptionally strong, recovering nearly 40% to 50% of the downfall seen in March.
S&P 500 Overview
Globally, the S&P 500 rose 3.5%, nearing all-time highs despite domestic economic challenges.
GOLD Overview
Gold gained 1.56% but remains in a consolidation phase; it would be surprising to see it rise straight up from here without spending more time building a base.
Dollar Index Overview
A very positive sign for emerging markets is the weakening Dollar Index, as dollar strength typically pressures these markets downward.
Global Indices Overview
In terms of global performance, Brazil and South Korea led the way with gains of 8.3% and 10.9%, respectively. India’s performance was in line with Japan, Australia, and Germany, suggesting that the local market is no longer underperforming other large global peers.
Global Momentum
On the momentum score table, India still sits near the bottom with the Dow Jones and Hang Seng, but it has climbed to seventh place on a weekly return basis, suggesting a positive shift.
Benchmark Indices Overview
The recovery across various timeframes shows that Nifty Next 50 jumped 9% this week, followed by mid-caps at 7.5% and small caps at 6.99%. Over the last month, small caps have recovered by 2.39%, though the Nifty remains down 6% over a three-month period. Looking at the one-year view, returns appear decent with the Nifty up 7% and mid-caps reaching near double-digit returns. Most indices, particularly small and mid-caps, remain well above their long-term averages, suggesting the market is nearing a range of support.
Sectoral Overview
Sector-wise, real estate led the week with a 13% gain, followed by capital markets at 11.7% and autos at 10.6%. Lagging sectors included Pharma, IT, and Central PSUs. Over the past year, metals and capital markets have been the strongest performers.
The high momentum score in the capital markets segment is a particularly good sign, as it indicates that new money is entering the market with the expectation of future gains. Conversely, IT, FMCG, and services remain at the bottom of the momentum rankings.
Introducing All Seasons
Markets reward patience — but rarely make it easy.
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📈 Growth — Nifty 50
Own India’s strongest 50 companies — the backbone of our economy. Participate in the nation’s long-term growth story without picking stocks or timing entries.
🛡️ Stability — Gold
Crises strike without warning. Gold rises when equities stumble — acting as your portfolio’s natural hedge and emotional anchor.
⚙️ The Engine Behind It
All Seasons shifts allocations every fortnight based on market conditions:
- When equities run hot, exposure trims automatically.
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Who is this for?
✅ Index investors who want smoother participation
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Price: ₹4,999 per year
Recommended Capital: ₹2–30 lakh
Introducing Mi Allcap GOLD
Mi Allcap GOLD is designed for investors who want broad equity exposure with a built-in hedge. It combines:
25% Large Caps – for stability
25% Mid Caps – for growth
25% Small Caps – for alpha
25% Gold ETFs – as a permanent hedge
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Why Mi AllCap GOLD?
All-in-one exposure to all equity tiers + gold
Rebalance Frequency : Monthly
Momentum Style : Rotational
Whether you’re just starting your wealth journey or looking to anchor your core portfolio, Mi AllCap GOLD offers a powerful blend of momentum, diversification, and downside protection.
Don’t just diversify — balance wisely.
Rebalance Update
