The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
It was a decent week overall. The murmur from the US administration is not dying down, though. Midweek they were asking the EU to impose tariffs on India, and by the end of the week, they were urging the G7 to do the same. It seems they are running out of tactics, and India, very smartly, is not even responding. Negotiations are ongoing, and much of this noise looks more like a bargaining tactic than a genuine escalation.
Many commentators believe that within a couple of months the deal—whatever form it takes—between the US and India will be done and dusted. The market also seems to have largely discounted this tariff issue, with investors no longer reacting nervously to every statement. Instead, the focus is shifting back to internal market dynamics. Nifty gained 1.5% this week. The index opened flat but gathered strength through the week.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
On the weekly chart, we can see that over the last two weeks, Nifty has recovered entirely from where it was four weeks ago, and it now looks set on an upward path. There is even a cup-and-handle pattern forming, and once Nifty crosses its June 2025 high, we may see some fireworks and a potential march to fresh all-time highs. At present, the market is just about 4–5% away from those highs, which is not a worrying distance at all.
S&P 500 Overview
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was also strong, up 1.59% this week. Despite continuous chatter about recession risks, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation, the US market refuses to slow down. More and more companies are joining the trillion-dollar market cap club, pushing market valuations higher. From mid-April levels of 4,800, the index has now surged close to 6,500—a superb rally by any measure.
GOLD Overview
Gold continued to deliver a powerful message. It closed the week at ₹10,955 per gram, nearly double from where it was in September 2023 at around ₹5,500. The speed of this move has left many in disbelief, but that is the nature of gold—it delivers lumpy returns. Historically, gold cycles have lasted around eight years, alternating between strong rallies and periods of stagnation. What we are witnessing now is a continuation of the cycle that began in 2024, fueled by inflationary pressures and excess global liquidity.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, however, has been stubborn, not yet breaking down as expected. A weaker dollar would provide a major boost to Indian markets and to gold. While the US administration itself wants a weaker dollar, other countries are simultaneously competing to devalue their currencies to support exports, including India with its approach to the rupee.
Global Indices Overview
A new lens this week is the global indices overview in dollar terms. Converting each market to USD makes comparisons cleaner. Over the week, Nikkei led with +4.6% and Hang Seng followed at +4.1%, while the US majors posted gains between ~0.6% and ~1.9%. On a one-month lookback, Hang Seng sits on top; over three months, Nikkei (≈14.6%) dominates; and over six months, NASDAQ, Brazil, and Canada screen best.
The one-year winner is Hang Seng at ~53% in USD—but stretch to five years and it flips: Hang Seng is the laggard, whereas Nifty is the standout with ~15.5% USD CAGR, outpacing the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ. Over three years, Germany leads. The lesson: leadership rotates; no single market owns the podium across every timeframe.
Global Momentum
Momentum scores across countries tell a similar story. Japan’s Nikkei ranks first on a blended one-year to one-week basis—counterintuitive to many—followed by NASDAQ and Hang Seng. Canada and Brazil round out the upper mid-pack, with the S&P 500 still solid. Russell 2000 has slipped and looks fragile, while Canada and the Dow show abrupt short-term softening. Europe is picking up, particularly France’s CAC 40. India’s relative momentum has been subdued on the one-year lens, reminding us that momentum leadership is not the same as valuation or fundamentals—it’s about trend persistence right now.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Back home, local benchmarks moved in lockstep. Midcap 150 led at +1.86%, Nifty Next 50 was +1.65%, and Nifty 50, Nifty 500, and small caps were all clustered just below that, signaling broad but measured participation. On a one-month basis, small caps and midcaps are each near +3%, with Nifty close behind at ~+2.6%–3%, a neat, orderly tape rather than a euphoric dash.
Sectoral Overview
Defense jumped another 7% for the week, reasserting its leadership on the back of steady order visibility. IT climbed 4.3% as the recent fear overhang eased and buyers rotated back into quality names. Central PSEs and PSU banks also performed well, hinting at continued appetite for government-linked balance sheets. The up-moves were reasonably broad, but leadership clearly sat with defense and IT, while more defensive corners were quieter.
The momentum score across sectors places autos at the top, followed by metals. Defense has surged back into the upper tier, with PSU banks and MNC stocks not far behind. At the other end, media, real estate, oil & gas/energy, and FMCG are still lagging. IT is clawing back lost ground—no longer at the bottom, but not yet in full control of the leaderboard. Capital markets, which dominated momentum for the six-to-twelve-month windows, have slid in the short term, underlining how quickly leadership can rotate. For fresh setups, autos, metals, and defense offer the most favorable momentum-plus-story mix right now, while the laggards need clearer evidence of revival.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We have been sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.
Why this change?
Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:
• Strategy updates & rebalances
• Exclusive announcements & offers
Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
