The WeekendInvesting Newsletter
The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
Check out our past newsletters.
Nifty on the Daily Chart
What a week this has been. At the end of last week, the market had gone up, but we were not expecting it to boom like this as the conflict faded into the background. The defense sector has taken the market by storm. And it’s not just India’s defense sector that is booming—global defense ETFs are also on a roll. There is a global trend favoring defense stocks, and in India, the order books for missiles have shown robust demand from many countries.
On the Nifty daily chart, in the last five sessions, the week started with a major gap-up on Monday, jumping from around 23,800 to near 25,000 in a single day. That explosive move was the week’s main highlight. Tuesday and Wednesday were quiet, while Thursday was volatile with a downside trap followed by a new recent high. Friday closed flat, wrapping up a 4.2% gain for the week.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
Looking at the weekly chart, we are now a stone’s throw from all-time highs. Just five weeks ago, we were at 21,800 with fears of a drop to 20,000 or 19,000. Now, we are near 25,000, showing how unpredictable the markets can be. Following the market trend is the only sensible way forward as consistent prediction is impossible.
S&P 500 Overview
S&P 500 has also rebounded strongly. From a bottom around 4,860, it has surged past 6,000, a 20%+ jump in four to five weeks. While underlying concerns like tariffs and international tensions remain, markets are behaving as though it’s business as usual. The calm might last, or turbulence could return unexpectedly. The surprise event at Pahalgam and India’s response remind us that external shocks can always resurface, but for now, the market looks very strong.
GOLD Overview
Gold, however, took a hit this week, falling 3.5% to around 93,360 per 10 grams, from a high of nearly 97,000. It has recovered slightly from 91,113, but the trend appears to be consolidating. The long-term trend remains intact, with previous cycles showing similar patterns of strong moves followed by rests.
Dollar Index Overview
The Dollar Index, once expected to fall to around 92 by end-2026, is forming a flag pattern. A continuation of this downtrend would benefit emerging markets and gold. Risk assets typically do well when the Dollar weakens.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Nifty gained 4%+ this week. Small caps were the biggest winners, gaining 8.79%. Nifty Next 50 rose 7%, midcaps 6.9%, and Nifty 500 5%. This week turned around the entire monthly performance. Over the past month, small caps are up 6.65%; over three months, they are up 13.8%, with more than half of that coming this week. For the year, Nifty is up 11.7%, in line with long-term historical averages. Over five years, Nifty has delivered a stellar 22% CAGR, while small caps have clocked 36%, much higher than their historical 15-16% average.
Sectoral Overview
In just this week, defense stocks gained 17.2%, capital markets 11.6%, metals 9.3%, media 9.1%, and real estate 10.8%. These are clearly the leadership sectors. No sector lost ground this week. Banks were slightly softer at 3.3%, with PSU banks outperforming private ones. Pharma, FMCG, and IT took a backseat, which is typical during aggressive market moves.
IT still gained 5.8%, autos 5.9%, and metals remained strong. Over the last year, capital market and defense sectors have been top performers. Financial services have also done well at 23.6%, along with private banks, the services sector, and pharma. Underperformers included energy (-11%), media, MNC stocks, oil & gas, PSUs, and real estate.
In the sectoral momentum charts, Defence and Capital Markets take the top two positions while Private banks, once strong, have recently slipped. New momentum leaders include defense, capital markets, and tourism. Real estate, PSUs, and media are regaining favor. On the other hand, services, infrastructure, and autos are losing ground relative to others. This sectoral rotation indicates which segments are currently driving market momentum.
On the Momentum Podcast
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
