The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also link.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
The markets ended the week on a steady note, but the real drama unfolded on the morning of the 20th with a press release from the Trump administration. The announcement introduced a $100,000 per year fee on H1B visas—visas that Indian IT companies rely on heavily for onshore U.S. work. The move has created shockwaves across the industry, sparking debates about its immediate and long-term implications.
One camp believes this is a seismic development that could disrupt the Indian IT and IT-enabled services sector. They argue that the additional costs could dampen demand and force companies to rethink their onshore strategy. The other camp, however, takes a more optimistic stance. Their view is that Indian IT firms are too entrenched in the U.S. system for clients to simply walk away. Instead, more offshoring could take place, with jobs, data centers, and back-office functions shifting to India. This could create new domestic opportunities and even strengthen India’s IT base in the long run.
Personally, I lean toward the second camp. The U.S. is unlikely to benefit meaningfully from this in the short term. If companies cut back on talent mobility, the real pain will be felt by U.S. corporations themselves, who will struggle to maintain efficiency and competitiveness. That pressure could quickly turn into lobbying against such fees. This move may even turn out to be a negotiation tactic—short-lived, possibly lasting only a couple of months. Still, it has already strained the India–U.S. dynamic and could encourage Indian IT firms to diversify further into European and other global markets, much like they did during the dot-com era.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
The Nifty chart reflected resilience despite the policy noise. Out of five sessions this week, four ended higher and just one lower, resulting in a net gain of 0.85%. The index is now pushing up against a trendline resistance and looks well-positioned to retest its all-time highs. If the current pivot is crossed, fireworks may follow in the form of a fresh breakout.
That said, reaching an all-time high is no guarantee of continued upside. Sometimes the market touches these levels only to roll over into deeper corrections. With foreign flows still negative, caution is warranted, but the short-term structure favors strength.
S&P 500 Overview
Across the ocean, the S&P 500 continued to lead the charge. The index gained 1.22% this week, adding to its strong 4–5% rally over the last three weeks. The momentum shows no sign of fading, even though narratives of slowing growth and inflationary pressure dominate the headlines. Once again, the mother market is showing the world that liquidity and confidence matter more than macro fears.
GOLD Overview
Gold added 0.95% this week, ending at ₹11,059 per gram. The metal’s rise has been nothing short of spectacular, doubling from ₹55,000 to ₹1,10,000 per 10 grams in less than two years. This isn’t random—it’s a direct reflection of global money supply expansion.
Gold has always been the ultimate barometer of monetary excess. As central banks print more money, gold climbs to preserve value. With global inflation not fully under control and money supply still expanding, gold remains in a firm long-term uptrend.
Dollar Index Overview
The U.S. Dollar Index has been flat for several weeks now, holding steady without a clear breakdown. Its eventual move lower is critical. A falling dollar would add tailwinds to both Indian equities and rupee gold. For now, the sideways trend keeps markets waiting for the next decisive move.
Global Indices Overview
This week, global markets delivered a mixed picture when normalized in dollar terms. Brazil stood out with a strong 3.4% rally, while FTSE fell 1.2% and Australia dropped 2.1%. Europe managed a 1.5% gain, Hang Seng was up 0.8%, and U.S. markets remained strong with the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 both gaining 1.9%. India too held steady, with the Nifty rising 0.9% in dollar terms.
Over one year, the Hang Seng leads the scoreboard with a staggering 47% gain, while Germany surprised with a 31% rally. On a five-year horizon, India shines—Nifty 500 ranked second globally at 15.4% CAGR, behind only the NASDAQ. It even outpaced the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, highlighting India’s long-term relative strength despite recent consolidation.
Global Momentum
Momentum rankings across global indices show Nasdaq, Russell, and Canada leading near-term, while India, Europe, and Australia are closer to the bottom. Brazil and Nifty have shown recent improvements, suggesting some rotation is underway.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Back home, benchmark indices had a reasonable week with gains between 0.85% and 2.26%. The Nifty small-cap and mid-cap indices stood out with solid performance, while the broader Nifty 50 was more subdued. The takeaway is that breadth is returning, and leadership is not restricted to large caps alone.
Sectoral Overview
On the sectoral front, PSU banks led the charge with a 4.8% gain, followed closely by real estate at 4.4%. Defense stocks staged a comeback with 3.4% gains, reflecting renewed interest in the sector. On the flip side, FMCG and media were marginal losers, slipping slightly into the red. The breadth of positive contributions across sectors shows improving confidence, even amidst global uncertainties.
Momentum rankings confirmed the shift in leadership. PSU banks, autos, and defense occupied the top three spots, signaling strong institutional support in these sectors. Real estate, energy, and public sector enterprises also showed signs of a comeback. At the bottom of the pack, IT, FMCG, and media remain weak. Interestingly, defense has surged back after a lull, while capital markets, which dominated earlier in the year, have slipped sharply in short-term rankings.
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We have been sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.
Why this change?
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Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
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Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
