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Nifty on the Daily Chart

The week began with optimism, but it turned out to be a reality check for the markets. Heading into the post-Diwali session, traders were almost certain that an Indo–US trade deal was on the verge of being signed. The sentiment led to a gap-up opening on Thursday, signaling strong belief that the tariff standoff was nearing an end. However, the optimism was short-lived.

The rally quickly collapsed after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s remarks from Berlin, where he emphasized that India would not be “arm-twisted” and that negotiations were still ongoing. The assertive tone from the Indian side suggested that any agreement is still some distance away. What markets had celebrated as “imminent” now looks more like a rumor-fueled rally that got ahead of reality. The good news, however, is that despite the sudden correction, the index has not lost ground materially. Prices are roughly back where they were before the Diwali break — nothing gained, but nothing lost either. The structure remains intact.

On the technical front, Nifty ended the week up 0.33%, a modest gain during a short trading week with relatively low volumes. The weekly chart continues to look constructive, with the breakout from the previous week still very much in play. The trend remains upward as long as Nifty holds above the 25,500 mark, which sits roughly 300 points below current levels. This is a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal. Once fresh progress emerges on the trade talks front, a move toward new all-time highs looks likely. The setup remains robust — momentum has slowed, but the overall technical tone continues to favor the bulls.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

Structurally, the index is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern, indicating that markets don’t want to go down despite short-term hesitation near resistance levels. From July onward, several negative developments — from tariff concerns to global volatility — have failed to trigger meaningful damage. Interestingly, while broader markets like small caps and micro caps are showing weakness, the main indices are holding steady. This divergence points to underlying strength in the large-cap universe, where institutional buying remains active even as retail-heavy smaller segments continue to struggle.

S&P 500 Overview

In contrast, the U.S. markets are on fire. The S&P 500 jumped 1.92% this week, extending its relentless rally. Despite ongoing chatter about a U.S. recession, slowing data, and stretched valuations, the market seems unfazed. The current move appears driven by a combination of PE expansion, lack of alternative investments, abundant liquidity, and a slow erosion of faith in fiat money itself. Money is chasing scarce productive assets, and equities remain the most accessible vehicle. The result — the S&P 500 now sits at a new all-time high, defying bearish forecasts yet again.

GOLD Overview

Gold, after nine consecutive weeks of gains, finally took a minor breather, falling 3.47%. Yet in perspective, this decline is barely noticeable compared to the 30% surge preceding it. Some are quick to call the end of the rally, but such reactions overlook how tiny corrections are essential pauses in a powerful uptrend. Unless rupee gold breaks decisively below ₹1,08,000–₹1,10,000 per 10g, this remains a routine pullback, not a reversal. In essence, gold is still in a long-term uptrend driven by currency debasement, structural scarcity, and global risk aversion.

Dollar Index Overview

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index rose 0.4%, holding firm despite U.S. policymakers’ preference for a weaker dollar. As has been said often, the dollar remains “the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.” Until the dollar index starts to meaningfully decline, emerging markets like India will find it harder to attract strong inflows. A softening dollar would be the missing tailwind that could accelerate India’s next leg higher.

Global Indices Overview

In the global indices overview (in USD terms) — a proprietary dataset comparing markets on a uniform scale — the Hang Seng and Brazil led the week, up around 3%, while India posted modest gains of about 0.5%. Developed markets were also broadly positive, with U.S. indices up around 2%, and Europe relatively flat. Over longer horizons, Germany continues to dominate, with a staggering 33.8% gain in USD terms over the last year, followed by Nikkei (27%). Nifty and Nifty 500 remain among the weaker global performers on a one-year basis, but investors who diversified abroad, particularly into Germany or Japan, have been handsomely rewarded.

Global Momentum

The Global Momentum Scoreboard shows Nikkei, Nasdaq, Russell, and Hang Seng at the top, with Nifty languishing near the bottom of the pack. However, Brazil and Hang Seng are starting to climb, suggesting a gradual revival in emerging-market sentiment, while Europe and India have cooled off slightly in relative strength.

Benchmark Indices Overview

Domestically, in the benchmark indices, small caps rose 0.8%, Nifty 0.33%, while Nifty Next 50 remained flat. Midcaps and the broader Nifty 500 were slightly positive, signaling a steady but non-explosive recovery across market segments.

Sectoral Overview

From a sectoral perspective, IT stocks led the week, buoyed by hopes that the Indo–US tariff dispute could see a resolution soon. PSU banks also performed well, up 2.3%, driven by speculation around government-led consolidation and monetization efforts. On the other hand, consumption-related stocks fell, particularly after strong festival season sales triggered a “sell-on-news” reaction — traders booked profits as festive momentum subsided.

The sectoral momentum rankings paint an evolving picture. PSU banks and metals remain the consistent leaders, supported by strong price trends. Capital markets have been among the top sectors for weeks but are showing signs of fatigue now. Autos too are cooling after months of leadership, while real estate and IT are making a comeback. The central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) are seeing renewed strength, likely tied to government monetization efforts. On the weaker side, FMCG, pharma, and energy remain in the lower quartile, while financial services and consumption took a step back this week. Traders looking for bullish setups could focus on the top 3–5 ranked sectors for swing opportunities, while avoiding laggards where momentum is still absent.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We have been sharing all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.

Why this change?

Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:

Because it’s simpler, faster, and right where you already are — WhatsApp makes staying updated effortless.
Stay updated with:

• Strategy updates & rebalances
• Exclusive announcements & offers

Here’s an instruction manual if you are not aware of Whatsapp Channels

Introducing All Seasons

Markets reward patience — but rarely make it easy.
Even index investors — owning India’s top 50 companies through the Nifty 50 — struggle to stay the course. Drawdowns hurt, flat markets drain conviction, and emotions often break compounding faster than crashes do.

That’s exactly why we built All Seasons — a simple, rule-based strategy that helps you stay invested through every phase of the market by dynamically balancing between Nifty 50 (for growth) and Gold (for stability).

📈 Growth — Nifty 50
Own India’s strongest 50 companies — the backbone of our economy. Participate in the nation’s long-term growth story without picking stocks or timing entries.

🛡️ Stability — Gold
Crises strike without warning. Gold rises when equities stumble — acting as your portfolio’s natural hedge and emotional anchor.

⚙️ The Engine Behind It
All Seasons shifts allocations every fortnight based on market conditions:

• When equities run hot, exposure trims automatically.
  
• When they’re beaten down, the system increases weight.
  
• Gold moves in the opposite direction — balancing every phase.
  

No guesswork. No emotion. No fear of missing out — just a calm, intelligent portfolio that adapts to markets for you.

Who is this for?
✅ Index investors who want smoother participation
✅ New investors who prefer ETFs over stock-picking
✅ Professionals who can’t invest in direct equities
✅ Seasoned investors looking to add stability to their core
✅ Anyone who wants to stay in control without daily decisions

Price: ₹4,999 per year
Recommended Capital: ₹2–30 lakh

Introducing Mi Allcap GOLD

Mi Allcap GOLD is designed for investors who want broad equity exposure with a built-in hedge. It combines:

25% Large Caps – for stability

25% Mid Caps – for growth

25% Small Caps – for alpha

25% Gold ETFs – as a permanent hedge

Mi AllCap GOLD follows a rules-based, momentum-driven approach to select the strongest stocks in each segment. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to ensure it stays aligned with market leadership — with no human discretion involved.

Why Mi AllCap GOLD?

All-in-one exposure to all equity tiers + gold
Rebalance Frequency : Monthly
Momentum Style : Rotational

Whether you’re just starting your wealth journey or looking to anchor your core portfolio, Mi AllCap GOLD offers a powerful blend of momentum, diversification, and downside protection.

Don’t just diversify — balance wisely.

Rebalance Update

We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you

Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.