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The market demonstrated some stability over the course of the week, but a weekend development involving a US attack on Iran suggests that the upcoming week could experience some wobbly sessions according to the research desk.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
The weekly chart for the Nifty remained stable, closing up by a minor 0.18% this week, a movement that is neither here nor there. The index appears well-poised to move higher if macro conditions turn favorable, and the chart does not look exceptionally weak.
Tracking the price action since the end of March, the market formed a bottom, moved up to an intermediate high in the middle of April, and then corrected to form a higher bottom at the beginning of June. Currently, the price is closer to the top of that defined range than the bottom, meaning any positive news catalyst could potentially push the market beyond those upper boundaries.
S&P 500 Overview
In global markets, the S&P 500 faced some pressure this week, declining by 1.95%. Given the substantial gains achieved since the first of April, a short-term price and time correction is not ruled out for the US index.
GOLD Overview
Gold has also shown weakness, bearing the brunt of a hawkish Federal Reserve that is expected to implement two or three interest rate hikes this year. While many observers are writing off the long-term trend for gold as finished, jumping to that conclusion may be premature.
Although the short-term and medium-term upward momentum has faded, gold remains within a very long-term trend, and the fundamental base case for its rise has not changed. This weakness in gold and emerging markets is being driven by an exceptionally firm dollar index.
Crude Oil Overview
An analysis of the macro pulse shows that the USD-INR currency pair has stabilized following recent government initiatives to attract Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits from NRIs, a strategy that appears reasonably successful.
Meanwhile, Brent Crude crashed 9.5% this week, dropping lower than its price level from before the war started, which comes as a major surprise. However, following the geopolitical skirmish over the weekend, Monday could bring higher opening prices for Brent Crude.
The India VIX remains stable, while the dollar index has risen to 101.32.
Global Indices Overview
In dollar terms, no major global markets posted significant gains over the past week except for Brazil, which rose 2.9%, the UK, which gained 1.4%, and the Russell 2000, which went up 1%.
On the downside, sharper cuts were observed in South Korea, which fell almost 7%, China, which dropped 5%, the NASDAQ, which lost 4.2%, and Japan, which declined by nearly 3%.
Looking at performance over the last one year, South Korea stands out majestically with a 144% return, though this is due to a highly concentrated exposure to a couple of specific stocks.
Looking at five-year returns, South Korea is ahead by only 13.5% despite its recent phenomenal year, though the overall performance remains strong. Japan has also achieved an amazing feat, delivering a 54.6% return within an economy where interest rates hover around just 1% or 2%.
The American markets and Brazil have also done well over the past year. Unfortunately, India is down 14% in dollar terms over the last year, meaning the Indian market has underperformed relative to its global peers.
Global Momentum
In terms of global momentum scores, the United States, Japan, and South Korea occupy the top three positions, even though other countries are rising rapidly in the short term. The Hang Seng, Australia, and Germany sit at the bottom of the momentum rankings, while India is showing steady improvement compared to its position earlier in the benchmark indices overview.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Domestically, it was a very flat week across all benchmark indices, with almost all of them closing within a plus-or-minus quarter percent range, except for mid-caps, which lost about 1%.
Sectoral Overview
Sectorally, metals took a beating due to the strong dollar, falling 4.4%. Central PSEs and broader PSE stocks both closed lower, while energy stocks and the capital market sector each dropped by 2%. On the positive side, sectors like autos, pharma, real estate, and tourism remained unscathed and stood tall.
Defense, capital markets, and energy maintain the top three positions in terms of domestic momentum scores, whereas IT, FMCG, services, and oil and gas remain at the bottom. For discretionary traders looking for setups, targeting sectors with stronger momentum will generally yield more actionable trading opportunities.
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Rebalance Update
