The WeekendInvesting Newsletter
The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
Check out our past newsletters.
Nifty on the Daily Chart
Nifty closed the week with a modest gain of 0.72%. While it wasn’t a particularly strong move, the index is now consolidating around the 100-day moving average. This is actually a positive sign considering that the 100 DMA had earlier acted as resistance a couple of times. Now that we’ve crossed it and are holding just above, it gives some stability to the current trend. Technically, the slope of the 100 DMA, which had peaked around November 2024 and was declining, is now flattening. It will take some time, but it appears to be attempting a reversal, which could indicate more strength in the future.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
On the weekly chart, the Nifty formed a doji candle, where the open and close for the week were nearly the same, and there was a long upper wick. This doji appeared just as the index briefly touched an important pivot and pulled back. If this pivot is decisively taken out in the coming days, it could fuel further upward momentum. However, a break below this week’s low could mean the up move was short-lived, and we may head lower again. The coming week’s opening, especially with Monday being a holiday and Tuesday marking the start of April, will be crucial in deciding the next direction.
S&P 500 Overview
In the U.S., the S&P 500 was down 1.36% as of the evening of March 28th, and possibly fell further post that. The last six weeks have seen mostly negative candles with just one small positive week, indicating that bears are firmly in control. The gains made since the “Trump trade” began in mid-September have now been completely erased. Anyone who positioned themselves bullishly on the back of Trump’s return is now sitting on losses.
GOLD Overview
Gold remained strong with a 0.19% gain this week, inching closer to ₹90,000 per 10 grams. Over the past 15 months, gold has risen from ₹55,000 to ₹90,000, marking an extraordinary rally. This trend reinforces the power of momentum and the importance of following trends without bias. As long as something is going up, it should be respected. Whether gold touches ₹100,000 or ₹120,000 next year is anyone’s guess—but the trend has certainly been strong.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index has continued to fall and is now slightly below 104. If it moves further towards the 100 mark, it would be beneficial for India. A weaker dollar usually means rupee strengthening and the potential for more foreign inflows into emerging markets like India.
Benchmark Indices Overview
Looking at the benchmark indices, Nifty gained 0.72% this week. Nifty 50 was flat, midcaps were slightly down, and small caps fell around 1%. Nifty 500 was also flat with a 0.3% move. Over the past month, markets have done reasonably well with 6–10% gains across indices. However, the three- and six-month performances remain negative, with small caps falling over 14% in three months and over 18% in six months.
On a one-year basis, the market is nearly flat, with returns ranging from 4% to 8%. Over five years, though, all indices show strong compounding returns. As always, the message remains clear—look at markets with a long-term perspective. One or two years don’t define a market cycle. Over five to seven years, most investors see very healthy CAGR. Avoid reacting to short-term fluctuations.
Sectoral Overview
In sector performance, media and auto stocks were among the biggest losers. Autos were hurt by tariff-related news, especially with the U.S. imposing 25% tariffs on auto and potentially auto parts imports. Pharma too saw weakness due to similar concerns. Real estate and metals experienced minor profit booking. On the other hand, capital markets did well with a 2.4% gain, led by BSE, which alone surged around 16% in a session—benefiting from the single-day expiry framework introduced by the regulator. IT stocks remained flat and overall weak, down around 15% over the last three months. Real estate, despite short-term weakness, has been relatively resilient over a one-year period.
Defense and capital markets remain strong performers over the long term. Defense, in particular, has had a stellar one-month gain of 24.6%, making it the best-performing sector this month. Over five years, Defense has clocked a remarkable 65% CAGR. Metals are up 42%, real estate 35%, and PSU banks 36%—though it’s worth noting these returns are measured from the COVID bottom and are therefore somewhat skewed to the upside.
In the sectoral momentum overview, financial services continue to lead in terms of momentum scores. IT had slipped earlier but has now started to come back. Defense, after dipping, has made a strong recovery, and capital markets are bouncing back smartly. PSU banks and private banks are also showing strength.
On the other hand, energy and FMCG have weakened recently, while metals have started slipping again. Autos, real estate, MNC stocks, and consumption-oriented sectors have underperformed consistently over the past year. These broad trends help investors identify where leadership and weakness lie, giving a clearer view of market rotation and future opportunities.
Introducing the Momentum Podcast
Join us on WeekendInvesting’s The Momentum Podcast Epsiode 1 as Yassar, a Dubai-based engineer-turned-investor, reveals his 15-year journey—from Wall Street fascination to mastering systematic trading.
Hear Alok and Yassar talk about Real estate, Gold, Crypto and many hard-earned lessons, and practical tips for navigating markets.
Dropping on 30th March, Sunday at 10am—turn on the notifications and subscribe now to not miss it!
On Konversations with Kushal show !
I recently had a great conversation on Konversation with Kushal, where we dove deep into the world of momentum investing. In this episode, we discussed:
What momentum investing really is and how it helps investors stay on the right side of trends.
The ideal number of stocks in a portfolio, how to balance across market caps
The key decisions every investor must make and the biggest regrets most investors face.
How to identify trending sectors and whether sector allocation really matters.
If you want to understand the logic behind momentum investing and how it can help you build a robust, stress-free portfolio, don’t miss this episode!
Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
