The WeekendInvesting Newsletter is a daily newsletter that summarizes all the stories we cover during the day(market nuggets), including the daily byte that we shoot every evening. This newsletter will be delivered to your email every evening on market days, providing you with a wealth of market-related information. The newsletter includes both summaries and long-form blogs for all the market nuggets covered. These blogs are also linked to the videos we shoot, so you can choose to watch or read the content according to your preference.
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Nifty on the Daily Chart
Nifty was very flat this week, ending 0.41% down—virtually no movement at all. The week began with a gap-up on Monday but gradually gave up part of that gain, along with some of last week’s advances. The index is currently trading in a highly congested zone, and it seems like this range could hold for another week or two at most before a bigger directional move materializes, potentially as early as next week.
Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective
On the weekly chart, the last two candles have formed what are called “inside weeks,” where the price action remains within the high and low of the previous week’s candle. Three weeks ago, Nifty saw a strong upward move, but the two weeks since have stayed within that range, indicating indecisiveness. The market is consolidating at a breakout point, and while downside moves are possible, the trend appears to remain upward. In fact, there hasn’t even been a 20% retracement of the previous gain, suggesting that the underlying sentiment is still bullish.
S&P 500 Overview
The S&P 500 also moved higher, rising 1.88% this week and coming very close to its all-time highs. This is causing some confusion among investors, as concerns about a U.S. recession, supply chain disruptions, and global slowdowns persist—yet the market keeps pushing higher. This is a classic example of markets climbing a “wall of worry,” ignoring negative headlines and pricing in optimism.
GOLD Overview
Gold corrected this week, falling 1.68%. However, looking at the weekly candles, the decline is modest, and the trend still appears sideways rather than a sharp correction. The recent movements suggest consolidation rather than reversal. This may be a prelude to a bigger upward move, possibly within a month or so.
Dollar Index Overview
The dollar index, which was previously showing signs of a breakdown, has stabilized around the 100 mark. While a more pronounced waterfall decline was expected, this week saw the index arrest its fall, suggesting some near-term support.
Benchmark Indices Overview
In terms of benchmark indices, small caps led the way with a 1.8% gain, followed by mid caps at 1.2%. In contrast, large-cap indices were subdued: Nifty was down 0.4%, Nifty Next 50 down 0.5%, and Nifty 500 was flat overall.
Sectoral Overview
Sector-wise, capital markets, defense, and PSU banks were the standout performers. Capital markets surged 3.4%, helped by optimism around the potential NSE IPO and strength in stocks like BSE. Defense continued its rally, gaining 2.7% on strong order momentum. PSU banks were the surprise winners on Friday, likely spurred by strong GDP data—or perhaps early whispers of it—rising 4.1% for the week. On the flip side, FMCG was the worst performer, down 2.2%, with mixed earnings dragging the sector. Other laggards included consumption, commodity stocks, central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), and tourism.
Looking at momentum scores, defense continues to dominate, followed by capital markets and PSU banks. Oil and gas, infrastructure, and financial services are showing signs of slipping in the rankings, while banks (especially PSU banks), energy, and MNC stocks are seeing positive momentum. Pharma has emerged as a bright spot this week, breaking a trend of underperformance. Meanwhile, FMCG, consumption, and commodity stocks remain at the lower end of the momentum spectrum. Overall, we’re seeing leadership rotate towards pharma, real estate, and PSU banks, with general banking also improving in both public and private segments.
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Rebalance Update
We give advance notice here on the upcoming changes in your smallcase for Monday. This advance notice can be used to ignore Monday’s update if there is no change. If there is a change indicated you can use the smallcase app or log in to weekendinvesting.smallcase.com to see the rebalance.
Note: We are not including LIQUIDBEES as an ADD or an EXIT count.
