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The global conflict continues into its eighth day with no sign of a letup; in fact, the intensity is increasing in certain pockets. Crude oil prices are going through the roof, and the Indian market is reeling under the pressure of the fear that crude will exceed 100 dollars. It is currently at 85 to 90 dollars, which is not as big of a deal as the market is making it out to be, but the market is pricing in the potential of a panic price hike.

In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, prices went up dramatically by almost 40%, yet the markets did not react in a very negative way at that point of time. In all war playbooks seen so far—whether it was the Gulf War, the Ukraine war, or our own Kargil war—markets do react downwards, but beyond a certain point, the market is no longer impacted and starts to build up from there. Based on the learning from other cases, we should be getting closer to that point perhaps next week where markets may stop going down. Of course, if there is an unrealistic escalation where the N-word gets used, then it is anybody’s game.

Nifty on the Daily Chart

The Nifty chart over the last four sessions is not encouraging and looks very weak, closing at the lowest point in many months. Prior to Friday, there were three gap days where the market closed above the open, showing some optimism through the day. However, on Friday, the market gave up those gains, signaling a change in pattern where it seems the bulls have given up hope.

Nifty – Weekly Chart Perspective

The Nifty score for the week is minus 2.89% on the weekly chart. We have lost the previous pivot and closed below it, leaving us very near the support levels of July and August 2025. If that support breaks and we go down further, it probably means a couple of more thousand points to go. There are gaps on the chart until about 22,800, which represents the worst-case scenario we can paint right now.

S&P 500 Overview

The S&P 500 also started to move down this week, losing 2.02%.

GOLD Overview

Gold remained volatile at minus 1%.

Dollar Index Overview

The dollar index is up 1.24%, which is causing even more harm than the war itself. When the dollar index goes up, emerging market stocks drop, gold drops, and the rupee weakens, so everything goes against our favor.

Global Indices Overview

In the unique global chart where all markets are normalized in dollar terms, South Korea managed an 8% plus week despite huge volatility, indicating a lot of money is flowing there. Japan followed at plus 3.6%. Unsurprisingly, the Nifty is the worst performing market in dollar terms this week.

On a monthly basis, the Nifty is absolutely flat, while the Nasdaq is minus 5% and the Kospi is plus 20%. Over three months, the Kospi is up 61%, Brazil is up 23%, and the Nifty is minus 5.7%. Looking at a one-year basis in dollar numbers, the Kospi is at 148%, Brazil at 75%, and the Nikkei at 53%. Canada is up 43%, while the Nifty is up 9%, putting it very close to the US markets in terms of long-term returns over three and five years.

China has done nothing in five years at minus 1.9%, and the Kospi is up only 10% annualized over five years. The best performing markets have been Brazil and the S&P 500. India stands at 6.7% on a five-year return, which is likely why many foreign investors are not enthusiastic, as 6.7% in dollar terms is not an attractive market over that period.

Global Momentum

In terms of momentum scores for global indices, the Nifty is at the bottom, followed by Germany, Paris, and Euro stocks. Canada, South Korea, Brazil, and Australia are at the top, though South Korea lost some steam this past week while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are picking up steam in the middle of the pack.

Benchmark Indices Overview

The last week saw a complete demolition of all indices, with almost everything down 3% across the board.

Sectoral Overview

Every sector was down except for defense, which gained 4.9%. Tourism and PSU banks fell the most. There were minor gains in CPSE stocks and pharma at 0.1%, while real estate was smashed down 4.9%. Metals and energy were less damaged at minus 2%.

Over the last year, PSU banks and defense have performed the best at around 54% each. Metals are up 35%, capital market stocks are at 47%, and central PSUs are between 20 to 25%. The worst performers over the year are real estate at minus 10%, IT stocks at minus 21%, and tourism at minus 10.9%.

Momentum scores show defense, CPSC, and metals at the top, with IT, real estate, and tourism at the bottom. The advanced decline ratio was absolutely demolished this week with 88% to 92% declines. Over the last month, several market cap slabs lost more than 10%, and over three months, most lost 10% to 24%. Only the very top of the market remains undefeated over a three-month period. On a one-year basis, the top of the market shows double-digit gains while the bottom shows double-digit losses.

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Rebalance Update