Crude Oil Is Rising Again
These days, crude oil prices are going up, and many people are talking about it. It feels like a big concern when we hear that oil has increased so much. But if we look carefully, this is not something new. Oil prices have gone up like this many times in the past as well. So instead of panic, it is better to understand what is really happening.
Big Price Jumps in History
In the past, crude oil has seen many sharp increases. During the Gulf War, prices went up by around 75% in just two months (see the image below).
Later, during the Asian crisis, oil saw a massive rise over a longer period. Then came the commodity boom from 2002 to 2008, where oil prices increased many times over. These events show that such spikes are part of the natural cycle.
More Recent Surges
After 2008, crude oil again saw strong growth between 2009 and 2011. Then during the COVID crisis and the Ukraine war, prices moved from very low levels to very high levels, showing a huge jump. These kinds of movements may look extreme, but history shows that they have happened again and again.
Current Rise Is Not the Biggest
From December 2025, crude oil has moved from around $55 to over $100. This is a strong rise, but still not the biggest if we compare it with earlier spikes. In many past cases, oil has increased by several hundred percent. So the current move, while important, is not the most extreme one.
Inflation Plays a Big Role
One important thing to understand is inflation. Over the last 20–25 years, prices of everything have gone up. If oil was around $40–$50 many years ago, then today a higher price should not be surprising. Inflation affects all things, including oil. So higher prices are partly due to the value of money changing over time.
Higher Oil Prices May Become Normal
Going forward, the world may slowly accept that oil prices between $80 and $100 are normal. Over time, businesses and markets adjust their costs and prices based on this. What looks like a shock today may become normal tomorrow. As this adjustment happens, the fear around rising oil prices will also reduce.
