India’s Strong Performance in 2024
A recent chart from Charlie Bellelo shows a remarkable performance by India in USD terms. Among various ETFs normalized in US dollar terms, India has climbed to the third position, showcasing a year-to-date return of 12.4% for 2024. This is a significant improvement, highlighting India’s strong market performance compared to other countries. The US stands at number five with a 9.5% return, indicating steady growth but not as impressive as India’s.
Emerging Markets and Their Performance
Turkey and Peru have emerged well, performing impressively in 2024. However, many other emerging markets like Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia have shown poor performance. These markets are experiencing negative returns, ranging from around 10% to 21%. This stark contrast highlights the varied economic conditions and challenges faced by different emerging markets.
Japan and Other Major Economies
Japan has remained relatively flat after experiencing significant swings in the market. Most other countries have shown low single-digit returns, indicating a sluggish performance across the board. The few exceptions, such as the US, Malaysia, and India, have managed to achieve returns above 9.5%, reflecting their resilience and stability in a turbulent global economic environment.
Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact
The year 2024 has been marked by significant geopolitical interventions. The rising global debt crisis, changes in the US White House, and new global trade policies, including trade embargoes and increasing duties, have created a volatile market environment. These factors contribute to the uncertainty and challenges faced by global markets, impacting their performance negatively.
The Role of Oil Prices
One key variable that has not yet shown its full impact is the price of oil. Should oil prices spike, the current positive returns seen in some countries might quickly vanish. The stability of oil prices remains crucial for maintaining the current market performance. Any significant changes could lead to further market volatility, affecting the already fragile economic conditions.
A Year of Consolidation
Considering the geopolitical and economic challenges, 2024 might be a year of consolidation for global markets. After experiencing great performance in the past couple of years, a period of relatively lower gains is not necessarily bad for the long term. This period allows for stabilization and adjustment, setting the stage for potential growth in the future.
Disclaimers and disclosures : https://tinyurl.com/2763eyaz
If you have any questions, please write to support@weekendinvesting.com
