Where is the market headed?
Global markets have been ticking along quite well despite the ongoing geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela. Even the Venezuelan markets have shown surprising resilience, which is a topic explored further toward the end of this update.
While there has been much to celebrate regarding the all-time high marks reached by the Nifty and Sensex, the positive start to the New Year is accompanied by strong headwinds that are creating impediments for the Indian markets.
The United States has issued fresh warnings to India regarding higher tariffs. A clear message has been sent that India should curb its purchase of Russian oil. These trade negotiations have been ongoing for several months, particularly after the US doubled import tariffs on Indian goods to 50%. There were strong expectations that a conclusion to these negotiations would positively impact the markets and cause them to tick upward in 2026, but those prospects currently appear quite bleak.
It is now evident that the US can use the tariff card at any point, and it will be interesting to see how India responds to this threat and how the markets subsequently react to that response. Only time will provide those answers, though there is hope for a positive turn in the future.
The major news today is that Reliance Industries shares sank about 4.47%, marking the worst single-day fall since June 2024. To look at this chronologically, a Bloomberg report on January 2, 2026, claimed that three vessels carrying Russian crude were heading to the Jamnagar refinery. On January 5, the stock opened well and saw a high in the first 15 minutes, but this was followed by heavy selling.
Early on January 6, at approximately 1:30 am, Reliance issued a public statement denying the report, calling it blatantly untrue and clarifying that no Russian oil has been received in weeks or is expected in January. Despite this clarification, the stock continued to sink. This reaction signals that markets often have a mind of their own, as the fall intensified regardless of the company’s official stance.
Market Overview
The Nifty closed down 0.27% today. Despite this slight fall, the positive momentum appears intact, with the current movement looking like profit booking ahead of the earnings season. A clearer path for the markets may emerge once there is more clarity on the tariff situation.
Nifty Next 50
In contrast, the Nifty Junior index recorded a 0.27% uptick, reaching a level of 7602 and showing positive momentum across short, medium, and long-term parameters.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
The Nifty Mid Cap Index lost 0.2%, while the Small Cap Index fell 0.3%, coming down to test its 50-day moving average.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty was a positive mover, rising 0.12% to 6118.
GOLD
Gold remained flat with a minor 0.03% dip after a strong rally, while Silver continued its performance with a 1.2% uptick following yesterday’s 4.5% surge.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline trend showed 187 advances against 313 declines.
Heat Maps
The market heat map was heavily impacted by Reliance and HDFC Bank, which fell 1.5%. However, the tech sector saw an uptick, with TCS up 1.23%, HCL Tech up 0.54%, and Wipro up 0.87%. Zomato fell 0.98%, and ITC continued to decline by 2.07%.
Mover Of The Day
Trent served as a notable case study today, dropping 8.6% after sequential revenue growth stayed flat. Trent has been bleeding in 2025 and is currently at a 55% drawdown.
Sectoral Overview
In the sectors, Oil and Gas was beaten down by 1.75% due to Reliance and losses in Mahanagar Gas, GAIL, and BPCL. Pharma was the best performer, gaining 1.69%, led by Divi’s Lab. Over the last week, almost all sectors remain up except for FMCG and Tourism.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Oil & Gas Index
Nifty Pharma Index
U.S. Market
US markets have performed well over the last day, with small caps up 1.58%, the Nasdaq up 0.7%, and the S&P 500 up 0.64%. Leading stocks included Emerson Electric, Chevron, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Palantir. The Nasdaq presented a mixed bag with Amazon and Tesla doing well while others fluctuated.
Tweet Of The Day
An interesting development comes from Venezuela. Despite US actions and the abduction of the Venezuelan president, the Caracas Stock Exchange ended nearly 17% higher. This serves as an example of “Bhav Bhagwan Che,” showing that local markets may perceive internal events differently than international observers.
