Where is the market headed?
The week started on a very strong note with all Asian markets showing good momentum, led by Japan. Japan is in the spotlight as it sees a new lady Prime Minister taking charge, who has very bold and radical ideas compared to the previous government. She plans to follow a dovish and expansionary fiscal policy. Because of this, Japanese markets are rallying, and the yen is weakening against the dollar.
This sudden change seems to be having a positive effect across Asia. There is a growing belief that Japanese investments may rise in the region, and India could be one of the major beneficiaries. The yen carry trade, which was almost fading away, seems to have found new life again.
Market Overview
Back home, the Indian markets are once again above 25,000 on the Nifty. The charts suggest that the index might be breaking out of a base pattern, indicating a possible continuation of the rally. For the third day in a row, the market has seen a strong pullback. Interestingly, the talk about tariffs between India and the U.S. has completely faded in the last few days, which might be helping the sentiment. The Nifty closed at 25,077, up 0.74%, showing a very healthy short-term trend.
Nifty Next 50
The Nifty Junior index was up 0.34%, while midcaps rose by 0.7%, showing good strength. Small caps, however, stayed flat at just 0.09% up. So today’s rally was mainly led by large and midcap stocks.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty also broke a key resistance level and moved higher, forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the charts, suggesting the possibility of another 2,000-point upside from here.
GOLD
Gold continues to remain in a strong bullish grip, now at ₹11,923 per gram, rising from ₹9,900 in just over five weeks. It’s been a relentless run, though such sharp moves could also signal a possible short-term top forming around $4,000 on the international gold chart. After that, we might see some consolidation or correction. But it could also mean that a new wave of gold accumulation has begun. Some fresh data points also suggest interesting trends in gold demand.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio was nearly flat today, but declines reduced through the day, showing that buyers were coming back.
Heat Maps
Banking and finance stocks rebounded strongly. Reliance was up nearly 1%, though FMCG stocks saw some profit booking. Among notable movers, Adani Power, IOC, LTIM, Naukri, Solar, TVS Motors, and Chola Finance performed well, while Dmart and Siemens Energy saw some weakness after results. Chola Finance rose 4%, becoming one of the top gainers.
Mover Of The Day
Fortis Healthcare jumped 7.5% as the government raised CGHS treatment rates for central government employees, which could significantly boost hospital revenues.
In the Nifty Next 50 space, Nykaa rose 6.5% after a strong Q2 update, hitting a record high.
Sectoral Overview
On the sectoral front, most indices were positive except metals and media, which were slightly down. FMCG, PSU, and energy stocks did not participate much in the rally. Capital market-related stocks like BSE, Angel One, Motilal Oswal, and CDSL had a strong session. BSE rose around 5-6% amid speculation that weekly expiries would continue, reversing the earlier rumor that they would be discontinued.
Private banks, financial services, Oil and Gas, and Real Estate stocks all gained, reflecting a typical dovish-market move where rate-sensitive sectors rally. IT stocks also staged a strong comeback after weeks of weakness, with TCS, Coforge, LTI Tech, and Persistent Systems leading the way.
Sector of the Day
Nifty IT Index
Nifty Capital Market Index
U.S. Market
In the U.S., markets stayed mostly flat overnight. The S&P 500 was unchanged, Dow Jones gained 0.5%, and NASDAQ 100 fell 0.28%. Despite this, over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 is up 17%, and NASDAQ has gained 25.6%, showing how strong the American markets have been.
Stocks like Charter Communications, Thermo Fisher, Eli Lilly, NextEra, and Medtronic were among the top performers. For investors interested in the U.S. market, Weekend Investing also runs a portfolio on the Vested platform.
Tweets Of the Day
The tweet of the day highlighted an important lesson from history. It showed a Morgan Stanley report from June 2008 claiming that Lehman Brothers was bruised but not broken and was poised for profitability. Yet, just three months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed in one of the biggest financial crises ever.
This example shows why one should not blindly trust research reports. Even back then, many investors probably placed their full faith in such reports and suffered big losses. The key takeaway is to always do your own research before relying on expert opinions.
Another interesting insight came from Bullion Star, which shared some striking math about the gold market. The total above-ground gold in the world today is worth around $26 trillion. Global private wealth under management, across funds and portfolios, stands at around $350 trillion. Out of that, only 1.2% is currently allocated to gold. If this allocation even rises to 10% over the next decade, that would create around $30 trillion worth of new demand for gold. That kind of inflow would be enormous and could potentially push gold prices to unimaginable levels.
The gold market could witness explosive growth if this shift happens. It’s a reminder that one strong year in gold doesn’t necessarily mean the rally is over — major structural changes could still be unfolding.
