Where is the market headed?
The market continues to trade within a dull range, unable to break significantly past the 26,000 level. With the Union Budget less than three weeks away, there is ongoing discussion regarding whether it will be presented on Sunday, February 1st, or Monday, February 2nd. A final confirmation on the date is expected soon, which will likely trigger a wave of narratives concerning budget expectations.
A recent analysis of gold prices over the last 26 years suggests an interesting thesis for the metal’s future trajectory. By looking at a dollar-denominated gold chart—which removes rupee fluctuations from the equation—one can observe historical patterns. Between 2000 and 2011, gold experienced its first major move of the century, rising approximately 660% over a span of 624 weeks (see the image below). This was followed by a resting period of 228 weeks before the price resumed its upward path. Technical analysis often reveals such symmetrical patterns, similar to a flagpole formation where a second “pole” of similar height and duration follows a period of consolidation.
While no outcome is guaranteed, there is a reasonable probability that this pattern is repeating. Since the bottom in late 2015 and early 2016, gold has climbed from roughly $1,100 to $4,400, marking a 4x increase. If gold were to complete a 660% gain from that bottom over a similar 624-week duration, it would reach a price point of $8,000 by late 2027. This suggests that while a 335% gain has already been achieved, the price could potentially double again over the next 24 months. This prognosis will be revisited in December 2027 to see how the thesis held up against reality.
Market Overview
Turning back to the current equity markets, the Nifty remained flat with a marginal dip of 0.14%, even though momentum trends across the short, mid, and long term remain positive.
Nifty Next 50
Broader indices showed a similar pattern: the Nifty Junior rose 0.13%, mid-caps gained 0.43%, and small-caps moved up 0.15%, with all trends recently turning positive.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Bank Nifty saw a slight decline of 0.21% today, yet its overall indicators still point toward an upward trajectory.
Bank Nifty
GOLD
In the commodities space, gold dipped 0.98% to 13,883 and silver fell 2.56%, but both maintain positive momentum trends.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio remained flat with 225 advances to 275 declines, signaling a market waiting for a fresh catalyst.
Heat Maps
Heat maps showed large-cap stocks like Maruti, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC facing another day of losses, alongside Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, and State Bank of India. Conversely, certain names in the IT, private banking, auto, and pharma sectors gained ground.
In the Nifty Next 50, commodity stocks like Hindustan Zinc and Jindal Steel saw losses after recent rallies, while Varun Beverages, DMart, LTIMindtree, and Dr. Reddy’s performed well.
Mover Of The Day
The standout performer of the day was Tata Elxsi, which surged 9.5% following an upgrade by JP Morgan.
Sectoral Overview
Sector-wise, Nifty IT led the gains with a 1.87% rise, followed by Capital Markets at 1.18%, and Pharma and Defense at roughly 0.65%. The auto sector was the most affected, dropping 0.8%, while tourism, oil and gas, and real estate each fell by more than half a percent.
Sector of the Day
Nifty IT Index
IT stocks such as Persistent, Oracle, Coforge, and HCL Tech showed strength, potentially supported by a thesis that lower crude oil prices—aided by Venezuelan oil coming under US custody—will reduce energy and AI-related operational costs.
U.S. Market
International markets also showed strength, with US indices rising between 0.6% and 1.4%. Texas Instruments gained 8% while companies like Accenture and FedEx also saw upticks. On the NASDAQ 100, Amazon and Microsoft moved higher, while Nvidia, Apple, and Google experienced slight declines. Notably, Palantir rose 3.2% and Micron surged 10% in a single session. It is important to note that these observations are for informational purposes and do not constitute investment recommendations.
Tweet Of The Day
A specific look at the silver market reveals a potential short squeeze setup. Data from an ultra-short 2x inverse silver ETF in the US shows that retail traders are piling into short positions with record volume, often a sign that a market top is not yet in.
While physical supplies are tightening in countries like Singapore, mass euphoria has not yet hit long-side gold and silver ETFs, which remain below their 2011 tonnage peaks. This suggests that the silver market may have more room to climb.
