Where is the market headed?
After the big drubbing in micro caps and small caps yesterday, today morning also was a really bad open for the broader market. Markets plunged lower in the morning, but then post the first hour there was recovery in most pockets of small and mid caps and micro caps and they ended the day in the green. However, large caps failed to keep pace with the broader market and large caps fell a bit.
Well, on Wednesday night, Indian Standard Time, is when the Fed will speak about the interest rate cut or not. So, we will know Wednesday night what is the outcome of that, and that can have big repercussions on fund flows towards emerging markets. So, if we do get a rate cut and if there is commentary about more cuts coming, then perhaps you may see some stability coming back to the Indian market.
We did a video also on how experts keep predicting things and they never come around. While when they do predict it, it looks really nice. This was one tweet from Jacob King, who says, you know, just in 2025, these were the predictions on Bitcoin. Whether it is Bitcoin or Nifty or Dow Jones, it doesn’t really matter. But the point that we are trying to make here is that a lot of people make a lot of predictions and a lot of them go wrong. Sometimes some predictions go right and that is also purely a matter of luck most of the time. A broken clock is right twice a day, right? If 50,000 people are going to give predictions, few of them are going to get it right sometime or the other.
So in this case, Bitcoin was supposed to be at 2 million according to Cathie Woods. It was supposed to be 1 million according to Michael Saylor. It was supposed to be 350,000 as per Robert Kiyosaki. And mind you, these are not any, you know, wayside YouTube analysts here, these are respected fund managers managing billions of dollars of fund. And that’s how this prediction game goes. You can predict anything, people will invest with you based on those predictions, and then those predictions don’t have to be right because another prediction will come by that time. And you very well know that we are at 88,000 or 90,000 in Bitcoin and we are nowhere near these inflated figures to be achieved by end of December. So almost everybody will miss the prediction by a mile. And that’s what the video from the previous day actually also talks about.
Market Overview
Today has been a relief rally. Tomorrow also I’m expecting perhaps a quiet day ahead of the Fed move. But then Thursday morning is where, you know, some directional move is likely to happen.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior is up half a percent. You can see it climbed back from 66403. So that was a good climb back, almost 1300 points. But the structure remains weak here as well.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Mid caps are up 0.37%. Exactly the same story. Perhaps we are making a candle like this what we did early November and then, you know, we went up a bit. That is also possible here. The Thursday move is going to determine significant part of that. Small caps also came back from 15,860 to 16,200. So that’s a good pullback in small caps. Although the downtrend remains intact.
Bank Nifty
Nifty bank was the only sort of place where it did not move much from the previous session, minus 0.03%.
GOLD
Gold absolutely gone flat in the last six sessions. You can see, you know, this flag like formation just going very, very flat. Here Gold is also going to get impacted very big on the Fed’s speak.
SILVER
Silver is inching up 0.3% on silver, again very near 179,000 per kilogram.
Advance Decline Ratio
You can see the opening gap was huge. There was only declines at the morning and no advances. And then advances built up through the day and remained flat post that. So it’s a decent kind of pullback. We need one or two more such days to really bring back the confidence on the trend. So 331 advances to 169 declines.
Heat Maps
Greens are difficult to find on the screen. On the Nifty heat map you can see greens in Shriram Finance, you have some green in Titan, Adani Enterprise, Bharat Electronics, Adani Ports, and some in Eternal.
The Nifty Next 50 heat map is much, much better. So you can see large cap top half not so green, but large cap next half very green. So somehow there’s a very distinct nature of moves between Nifty 50 and Nifty Next 50, although all are large cap names. So here you can see very few reds actually. Siemens, ICICGI, Divi’s Lab, then you have BPCL, JSW Energy, and Zydus Life. These were the ones losing ground. Some good grounds made back up in Adani Power, Adani Ensol, Enrin, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, PNB, CG Power, and so on.
Mover Of The Day
In the Mover of the Day segment, we had some big move coming in, Kaynes Tech. Kaynes Tech dropped like 30% in the last few sessions and has recovered back 13% of it today. So it’s almost like a dead cat bounce after a fall of that kind of magnitude. The stock was nearly 8,000 and we recently came down to 3,600.
Sectoral Overview
In the sectoral trends, you can see positive moves in PSU banking space, 1.29%. Real estate, nearly 1%. Defense, 0.8%. Tourism, media, energy having some gains near half a percent. On the falling side, you had services, financial services, capital markets, pharma, all down half a percent. Autos smashed down 0.72%. IT down 1.19%. So IT surprisingly was smashed down today the most, which was perhaps spared yesterday. If we see on a weekly basis, IT is still up 1.5%. You can see that despite today’s up move, the last one week is down for every sector except IT stocks. Bank of India, Canara Bank, Indian Bank, UCO Bank and PNB were some of the banks which caused a short covering or a small bounce in PSU banks. The trend still looks a bit downwards. Coforge, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Wipro and TCS were leading the IT sector down, although IT by itself is looking quite alright on a medium term basis.
Sector of the Day
Nifty PSU Banks Index
Nifty IT Index
U.S. Market
In the US markets on the previous session, all indices were down mildly: 0.3% – S&P500, 0.45% – Dow Jones, Nasdaq – 0.1% and Russell almost flat. You had Nike, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Tesla and NextEra Energy losing 3 to 3.5%. Some of these stocks could be part of the Weekend Investing stock strategy in the US. These are not recommendations. This is the disclaimer.
Tweet Of The Day
Tweet of the day two is around behavior of investors. A lot of people are basically watching the screen, watching the ticker all the time. You know, you have 20, 30 stocks in your portfolio and you’re watching those prices all time, all the day.
What is the whole point of that? If you are going to be a long term investor with an actionable point not being intraday, for instance, let’s say you are a weekend investor and you will take an action end of the day or end of the week, end of the month, but certainly not during the day. Then what is the point of watching the screen during the day unless you are trading something or you want some adrenaline? It makes no sense at all to waste your precious hours watching numbers go up and down.
