Where is the market headed?
Monday, February 9, 2026, proved to be a positive day for the markets following the confirmation of the US-India deal over the weekend. Despite some concerns regarding an overhang on Russian oil, where the US suggested a 25% tariff might return if purchases continue, the situation remains stable. While Indian ministers managed the delicate topic cautiously, Russia is already adapting by increasing supplies to China. This leaves India with viable alternatives in Venezuelan or US oil, effectively minimizing immediate controversy. Additionally, while most agri-dairy products were excluded from the deal, expected strikes from farmer unions are viewed as a continuing background element that the market has largely looked past.
Beyond the trade deal, the market narrative was influenced by a significant message from Anil Agarwal of Vedanta Limited regarding India’s energy security. He highlighted the nation’s vulnerability, noting that 90% of oil and gas requirements are imported despite being surrounded by sea on three sides.
He advocated for a strategic shift back toward domestic exploration. Supporting this view, it is suggested that the government consider a 20-year tax holiday for global oil exploration companies to incentivize work along India’s extensive coastline. In an increasingly de-globalized world, reducing dependence on others for basic energy needs is becoming a critical security priority for the country.
Market Overview
The markets opened with a nice gap up today, closing 0.68% higher. While the move was not overly loud, the ability to maintain that gap throughout the day indicates a positive undercurrent. There are now two distinct gaps—one from four days ago and one from today—which typically only fill in the event of dramatic negative news.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior performed even better, rising 0.97% and challenging previous highs, while momentum scores across the board turned positive.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
The mid-cap segment saw a remarkable run, gaining 1.57% and reaching a new monthly high. Small caps also gained significant ground with a 2.55% jump; after being hit hard over the last year and a half, they are beginning to look much stronger.
Bank Nifty
Nifty Bank closed at its highest point ever, up 0.91%.
GOLD
Meanwhile, the gold market remains tepid but rose 0.98%. February is expected to be a tricky month for precious metals due to the Chinese New Year holidays and the upcoming February 27th deadline for COMEX delivery notes, which will test whether supply can meet buyer demand.
SILVER
Silver has also recovered nicely from recent lows, up 4.22%, maintaining a positive long-term trend despite recent volatility.
Advance Decline Ratio
The day’s heat map was largely green, characterized by 415 advances against only 85 declines.
Heat Maps
State Bank of India was a standout performer, surging 7.4%, which suggests strong institutional buying. Other notable gainers included Sriram Finance at 6%, and Dr. Reddy’s at 2.76% as it prepares to manufacture the drug Ozempic in India.
In the Nifty Next 50, stocks like CG Power, HAL, and Solar Industries showed strength, while Siemens and Britannia were among the few laggards.
Mover Of The Day
Shipping Corporation of India was the mover of the day, jumping 20% following a surge in Q3 net profits.
Sectoral Overview
In terms of sectors, Media surprisingly led the way with a 4.3% gain, suggesting the sector may have found a bottom. PSU banks rallied 3.3% primarily due to State Bank of India, while Real Estate continued its strong comeback with a 2.6% rise. Defense and Capital Markets also posted gains of 2% or more. In contrast, IT stocks remained silent, and public sector stocks saw no significant gains.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Media Index
U.S. Market
The US markets provided a strong lead-in with gains between 2% and 3.5% in the previous session. Tech leaders like Nvidia and AMD both rose 8%, recovering from earlier losses, though Amazon saw a decline of 5.5%. This volatility in US tech is reflected in various investment strategies, though these do not constitute direct recommendations.
Tweet Of The Day
A pivotal shift is occurring in Indian market dynamics, as domestic holdings in Nifty 50 stocks have surpassed those of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) for the first time in recorded history. While media discourse often underestimates domestic investors, the data suggests that the power and knowledge of the masses are significant. Domestic flows are a reflection of substantial wealth creation over the last five years across equities, real estate, and precious metals. As FIIs realize they may be missing the opportunity to buy at lower levels, the influence of domestic capital continues to stabilize and drive the market forward.
