Where is the market headed?
On May 13th, the market gave back most of the gains from the previous day’s rally. Investors who jumped in too quickly may now be seeing some losses. This is quite normal in stock markets—two steps forward and one step back is how it often works. Don’t worry too much about it. Such moves happen often, especially after a big rally. When markets are not very bullish, they usually take a break after a strong move.
One reason for this pullback may be the ongoing talks between the US and China. Many had expected that if global companies reduce their China exposure, India would benefit. But if the US and China come to an agreement, those opportunities for India may not be as strong. Also, President Trump had spoken about a US-India deal, but there’s been no progress. So the focus has now shifted, and India might be seeing reduced global attention.
Market Overview
The Nifty fell about 1.5% but the Nifty Junior stayed flat. This shows how different parts of the market behave. FIIs (foreign institutional investors) mostly buy or sell in the Nifty, not the Nifty Junior.
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior stayed mostly flat, showing stronger resilience than the main index.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Midcaps and small caps actually saw gains. This shows the rest of the market is still strong.
Bank Nifty
While the Nifty fell nearly 1.5%, Bank Nifty dropped around 0.8%.
GOLD
Gold moved up 1% today, but overall, gold has not been a huge performer over the last few years. The rising US Dollar Index is causing our currency to weaken and also pushing gold prices up. Still, gold has not shown any big breakout yet.
Advance Decline Ratio
The advance-decline ratio showed a mixed trend, with 279 stocks advancing and 217 declining, indicating a balanced market breadth.
Heat Maps
On the heatmap, Nifty saw deep red in several large-cap names, while Nifty Junior showed more green, reflecting broader strength in the mid-tier segment.
Sectoral Overview
Sectors like defense, media, PSU banks, and capital markets did well. IT stocks, however, gave up some recent gains.
Sectors of the Day
Nifty IT Index
The IT index stocks were the weakest performers of the day, giving up a big part of their previous gains with names like Infosys and HCL Tech falling over 3%.
Nifty India Defence Index
On the other hand, India’s defence stocks were the clear leaders, with the defence index hitting an all-time high, led by strong moves in Bharat Dynamics, Garden Reach Ship, and BEL.
Story of the Day: Will Nifty Explode in the Next Two Years? A Data-Backed Perspective
Each week, we dive into market statistics to spot patterns, and today we examine whether Nifty could see explosive growth in the next two years.
Looking at the last five years, Nifty has seen phases of strong rallies followed by consolidation. Historically, there have been long periods—such as 2008 to 2013 and 2015 to 2017—where Nifty either moved sideways or corrected. Yet, the long-term trend remains firmly upward, with Nifty not posting a single negative year for the last nine years.
One powerful statistical tool in understanding market trends is the two-year moving average. Over the past 25 years, Nifty has consistently taken support at this level, with very few exceptions—namely during the COVID crash and the 2008 financial crisis. This support level has historically acted as a launchpad for strong rallies.
Here’s what the data shows:
6 months after support: +17% average return (10 out of 12 instances positive)
1 year later: +25% average return (11 out of 12 positive)
2 years later: +21% CAGR (with minimum at 6% and maximum at 44%)
3 years later: +19% CAGR
Currently, Nifty has already bounced over 13% from its February 2025 low, again near the two-year moving average.
While it’s impossible to predict Nifty’s exact movement, staying invested and following a structured method can be your edge. The charts may look uncertain, but market history provides confidence and clarity for those willing to stay the course.
WeekendInvesting launches – The Momentum Podcast
In this episode of the Momentum Podcast by Weekend Investing, Alok Jain sits down with Mr. Thomas, a passionate retail investor, to uncover his remarkable journey—from exiting the markets at the worst possible moment during the 2020 crash to finding clarity and consistency through momentum investing.
Topics Covered:
✅How a train journey sparked his interest in the stock market
✅Emotional investing mistakes & lessons from the COVID crash
✅Why he shifted from value to momentum-based strategies
✅The Weekend Investing system that gave him peace of mind
✅How he balances aggressive bets with long-term wealth-building
Whether you’re just starting out or navigating your own investing style, this episode is packed with relatable stories and actionable insights.
