Where is the market headed?
The markets are currently in a state of shock and awe as the NASDAQ has experienced a run of 12 straight days of gains. This represents the longest winning streak in 17 years, a phenomenon not seen since 2009. As noted over the last few weeks, markets often perform in ways that nobody expects, and that is exactly what is playing out now in both global and Indian markets.
Many investors are currently stuck after losing their positions and are looking to buy back into the market as soon as it dips, but the market is no longer dipping. If this trend continues for another week or so, major FOMO, or fear of missing out, will likely kick in for the money that has been sitting on the sidelines. It is essential to stick with a plan and a strategy rather than trying to outsmart the market, because the market is the smartest of all.
Market Overview
At the end of March, it would have been difficult to imagine that April would turn out this way. While the Nifty is not a direct match for the NASDAQ, seeing it move from 22,000 to 24,300 in just 15 days is something few would have bet their money on. What is happening is reasonably good, and while the probability of the markets falling again is very low, it cannot be entirely ruled out.
There are some noticeable gaps, and if brutal news regarding the war starts to emerge, the market could potentially go down. Otherwise, the market appears poised to move higher, as no bad news is currently stopping it.
Nifty Next 50
This sense of urgency is particularly visible in the Nifty Junior rather than the standard Nifty. The Nifty Junior has seen 11 or 12 sessions of rallying, returning almost to the same level it occupied at the beginning of 2026. It is as if nothing happened during the month of March. Nifty Junior rose 1.4%, and mid-caps were up another 1.2%, also fully recovering from the March fall.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
Small caps are actually trading higher than where they were before the start of the year. Investors should link these chart moves with the narrative; waiting for a headline to confirm the war is over before buying is almost always too late. The market provides indications of its intentions much ahead of the popular narrative. Small caps rose 1.48% while the Nifty Bank was up 0.85%.
Bank Nifty
The Nifty and Nifty Bank are lagging behind the mid-cap, small-cap, and Nifty Junior spaces, perhaps due to more FII selling in those areas or because mid and small caps have already completed their downward business.
GOLD
In the commodities space, gold is absolutely flat at minus 0.06%, with a rate of 15,165, unable to move significantly up or down. Crude oil is similarly stuck at 95 to 96 dollars. Major discussions on these topics have reached a standstill, and war news has largely exited major media coverage, which is now focusing on reservations and other domestic issues. The narrative has changed quite a bit. On that topic, the ruling party has introduced significant policy moves, including reservations based on certain criteria and wage hikes in different states. They are creating a stronghold before the election, leading to expectations that more states will come under the control of the center.
Crude Oil
Advance Decline Ratio
The advanced decline trends were very strong at 407 to 92. Even after the market has been up for ten days, one might expect at least a 1% or 2% correction or some profit-taking, but that is not happening at all.
Heat Maps
The Nifty heatmap was very strong, featuring gains in State Bank of India, Reliance, and Adani Ports. Hindustan Unilever rose 4.75%, with Titan, ITC, Shriram Finance, Kotak Bank, Coal India, and JSW Steel all performing well. Small losses were noted in HDFC Life, Wipro, Sun Pharma, and Mahindra.
The Nifty Next 50 heatmap was also very strong. Adani stocks continued their run-up, and consumer non-durables like Godrej, VBL, Britannia, and United Spirits did well. Producer manufacturing stocks such as Enrin, CG Power, and Siemens were strong. Dmart and Pidilite both jumped 4.5%, while HDFC AMC, IRFC, and many other stocks saw gains. DLF gained 2%, with hardly any losses visible.
Movers Of The Day
In the mover of the day segment, Angel One rose 10.2% after quarterly profits jumped 84%. The capital markets sector is leading the market significantly.
Nava Ltd surges on heavy value turnover amid institutional interest, marking a 12% gain. These moves indicate that the market is no longer fearful of going up; instead, people are fearful of buying at these levels.
Sectoral Overview
Sectoral trends showed all sectors up except for Nifty IT, which remained flat. FMCG gained 2.65% after a long time, and capital markets gained 2.56%. MNC, energy, and defense stocks also rose. Over the last month, capital markets are up 15.6%, while metals, real estate, and IT are each up about 10.5%. Pharma is the only space that lost 0.4% in the last month.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Capital Market Index
Capital market stocks have seen gains ranging from 3% to 10%, with some seeing moonshot gains of 20% to 25% since the beginning of April.
Nifty FMCG Index
FMCG is also moving up reasonably well, with Colgate, Emami, Radico, Hindustan Lever, and United Spirits performing well.
U.S. Market
The previous session of the US markets saw another new high, with the NASDAQ hitting 0.49% and the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell all up a quarter percent. AMD rose 7.8%, Charter Communications 7%, and Intel 5.4%, while Oricon and FedEx also performed well. Some of these stocks may be part of the weekend investing US stock strategy, though these are not recommendations.
The NASDAQ 100 heatmap was reasonably green, especially in the semiconductor and chip industry. While ASML, Apple, and Tesla were down, it was overall a very good day for the NASDAQ 100.
Tweet Of The Day
In the tweet of the day segment, a tweet from Neil Vorit points out that the Motilal Oswal ETF trades at 286 while its NAV is 238. This 20% premium just to get NASDAQ exposure is described as absurd. Investors should be very careful when buying overseas ETFs listed in India, as they can be badly mispriced due to regulations limiting the amount that can be bought.
People are willing to pay a 20% premium just to enter that space, but an easier way is to open a US brokerage account to buy cheap ETFs directly without a premium. These ETFs are mispriced, and people are buying them blindly because no one is telling them it is not the right price.
