The market remained very dull on today, losing some ground as it transitioned into what appears to be an inactive holiday season. While commodities, metals, and the PSU banking space show some activity, the broader market is currently defined by inaction and lethargy.
A major point of interest is the upcoming 9 PM meeting scheduled by Donald Trump on Wednesday night, US time. This event could serve as a significant turning point for several potential outcomes. Speculation suggests the discussion could revolve around stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, or perhaps the ongoing situation between the US and Venezuela regarding resource management.
There is also the possibility of news regarding the replacement of the Fed Chairman or a potential trade deal with India. If a trade deal is announced that successfully negotiates tariffs down to 15% or 20%, it would be a highly positive outcome for the Indian markets.
Where is the market headed?
The Nifty remained flattish, touching a low of 25,770 before closing at 25,818, down 0.16%.
Market Overview
Nifty Next 50
Nifty Junior fell by 0.38%, while Mid-caps dropped 0.55%, erasing a significant portion of recent gains.
Nifty Mid and Small Cap
From a technical perspective, a head and shoulders pattern appears to be forming in the mid-cap segment, which could signal further weakness. Small caps also resumed their downward trajectory, failing to break through existing resistance levels and confirming a short-term bearish trend.
Bank Nifty
The Nifty Bank showed more resilience, closing down only 0.18%.
GOLD
In the commodities space, gold saw a marginal dip of 0.31% to 13,288. In contrast, silver continues its relentless daily climb. Over the last two months, silver has moved from 1,40,000 to 2,02,000 per kilogram, driven by a global surge in demand and a significant shortage in supply.
SILVER
Advance Decline Ratio
Market breadth was weak; while advances started well, they faded within the first few hours, ending with 125 advances to 375 declines.
Heat Maps
The heat map showed significant pressure on private banks, with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank all trading lower. However, State Bank of India, Shriram Finance, Coal India, and Hindalco saw some gains. IT stocks and Reliance remained flattish, while Bajaj Auto and Adani Ports were among the notable losers.
In the Nifty Next 50, green was seen primarily in commodities and PSU banks, while most other sectors faced broad distribution and selling pressure.
Mover Of The Day
A major mover of the day was AkzoNobel, which plunged 13.56% following a 9% stake sale by its promoter. This reflects a growing trend in 2025 where foreign promoters are selling stakes in their Indian subsidiaries, often at a discount, believing them to be overvalued compared to their parent companies.
We are seeing a high volume of promoter selling across the board this year, which counters the liquidity propping up the market. It is a strange phenomenon where the biggest insiders—those who know their companies best—are selling out even as market liquidity maintains stock prices.
Sectoral Overview
Sectoral trends were a mixed bag, with PSU banking being the only standout performer. Media stocks fell sharply by 1.7%, and Defense dropped 1.1%, despite strong rumors of a dramatic increase in the upcoming defense budget. This creates an interesting wait until the 1st of February to see how the sector reacts. Tourism and Real Estate also faced declines.
Sector of the Day
Nifty Media Index
Nifty PSU Banks Index
U.S. Market
In the US, markets were similarly mixed; the NASDAQ rose slightly by 0.2%, but the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all faced headwinds. Tesla hit a new high, and stocks like Comcast, Palantir, and ServiceNow saw gains, though these are observations rather than recommendations.
Tweet Of The Day
The day’s insights conclude with a lesson on market narratives, using Tata Motors as an example. Despite an exceptional launch of a new SUV with 70,000 bookings on day one, the stock price barely moved, gaining only 0.6%. This highlights how stocks can move very differently from the popular story surrounding them. Buying or selling based solely on a narrative can be dangerous, as many other factors influence price.
