Where is the market headed?

It was a very stable day in the markets. Most segments closed in the green, and there was a clear sense that the selling pressure we had been witnessing recently is beginning to ease. Infosys, along with several other IT companies, announced strategic AI partnerships, which provided some much-needed relief to the battered IT space. The broader narrative around artificial intelligence continues to gather momentum, especially with the AI Summit in Delhi drawing massive participation. Whether meaningful business is being concluded on the ground remains to be seen, but government commentary suggesting potential commitments of over $200 billion has certainly injected optimism into sentiment. At the very least, the tone has shifted from defensive to cautiously constructive.

Markets are not falling apart, nor are they staging a runaway rally. They appear to be consolidating within a range. Interestingly, the banking sector is showing relative strength and seems to be taking the lead. That, in my view, is a healthy development for the broader market. February and March are traditionally muted months due to financial year closure dynamics and the payment of advance taxes by corporates around mid-March. Historically, these last six weeks of the fiscal year are not particularly exciting. So, a period of sideways consolidation with selective leadership emerging should not surprise anyone.

Looking at the Infosys chart, we saw a panic bottom form near the 1270–1280 zone just days ago. From there, the stock has rebounded toward 1400 and closed near 1390, aided by the collaboration announcement with Anthropic. It is a decent recovery on the surface. However, from a technical standpoint, this could very well be a classic dead-cat bounce. There is possibly enough momentum for the stock to attempt filling the visible gap overhead, but expecting a sharp V-shaped recovery may be unrealistic. My broader thought, which I had also shared earlier, is that if you cannot compete head-on, you collaborate. While Anthropic is not a direct competitor to Infosys, the market may be interpreting these partnerships as an attempt to bridge a perceived AI capability gap. Partnerships are positive, but they do not automatically immunize a services business from structural disruption. From a trend-following perspective, there is absolutely no need to rush into falling stocks. Let them stabilize, form a constructive structure, and only then consider participation.

Market Overview

Nifty closed above its two-day high, something I closely track. That is a constructive short-term signal. The index ended up 0.17%, and short-, mid-, and long-term trends remain positive. I am reasonably satisfied with how Nifty behaved.

Nifty Next 50

Nifty Junior also moved higher, closing a prior gap and gaining 0.54%. Momentum readings across timeframes are positive here as well.

Nifty Mid and Small Cap

Midcaps rose 0.28% and continue to look structurally sound. Small caps advanced 0.74%. While the long-term trend on small caps remains negative, history suggests that once a broader rally sustains, small caps tend to catch up swiftly.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to spearhead the market, delivering yet another all-time high close at 61,174. Short-, mid-, and long-term trends remain firmly positive. This leadership from financials is an important pillar of current market stability.

GOLD

In commodities, gold remains range-bound and slipped around 1.2%, though the long-term trend remains positive.

SILVER

Silver corrected about 2% but also retains a positive long-term structure. For long-term investors, these appear to be reasonable accumulation zones, though silver may see further short-term weakness, possibly even toward the $50 mark.

Advance Decline Ratio

Market breadth was strong, with 326 advances versus 174 declines. That is a healthy advance-decline ratio and supports the idea of underlying strength rather than a narrow rally.

Heat Maps

The Nifty heat map showed widespread green, particularly in IT and auto stocks. However, names like ITC, Tata Consumer, L&T, Adani Ports, Reliance, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, and Zomato saw some pressure.

In the Nifty Next 50, PSU banks and select Adani stocks showed strength, while metals continued to face selling pressure, remaining one of the weakest sectors in recent sessions.

Mover Of The Day

In the movers’ segment, Ease My Trip hit back-to-back 20% moves, rising from ₹6 to ₹9.5 on fundraise plans. However, the stock remains down 80–90% from its peak. When such severe value erosion has already occurred, it becomes extremely difficult to confidently assume that everything is structurally repaired. These are high-risk situations requiring extreme caution.

Sectoral Overview

Sectorally, PSU banks led with a 2.1% gain, followed by defense at 1.3% and IT at 1%. FMCG and media posted modest gains, while metals declined 1.1%, remaining at the bottom. Over the past month, IT has lost nearly 15%, far worse than any other sector except realty, highlighting the magnitude of recent damage.

Sector of the Day

PSU BANKS & DEFENCE Index

PSU banks such as Bank of Baroda were leading gainers. In defense, names like Dynamic Tech, Unimec, and Kochi Shipyard performed well. The defense index appears range-bound but is nearing a potential breakout around the 8350–8360 zone. US markets were closed for President’s Day in the prior session.

U.S. Market

U.S. markets were closed on February 16, 2026, for Presidents’ Day.

Tweet Of The Day

Finally, a philosophical thought on compounding and wealth creation. There are stories of individuals who have compounded extraordinary wealth — professors, disciplined SIP investors — building portfolios worth ₹60 crores or more, yet living extremely modest lifestyles with no desire to upgrade consumption. It raises an important psychological question: why are we chasing numbers? Many people want ₹100 crores, ₹1,000 crores — but rarely pause to ask what they would actually do with that money.

Mega-cap US tech stocks—Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Tesla—are showing visible trend fatigue. Some are flat, others have broken trend structures, and a few are outright declining. Amazon is reportedly at one of its cheapest valuations historically, yet price behavior remains subdued. Microsoft and Meta show downtrends; Nvidia is flat; Oracle is sharply lower; Tesla is stagnant. When trillions of dollars of market capitalization begin to lose structural strength, it becomes a point of concern. This could be either a consolidation phase or the early signs of a deeper correction. Either way, it is not a particularly reassuring setup for global markets.